Date: December 19, 2024

Comprehensive Analysis of Live Stock Market Dynamics with Scott Redler

In his latest live session titled "Scott Redler’s #630club – LIVE Stock Market Analysis," Scott Redler, a seasoned market analyst with over three decades of experience, dives into the depths of stock market behaviors, providing timely insights and valuable lessons to both novice and seasoned investors. The detailed analysis following a tumultuous trading day offers a roadmap to navigate through market intricacies with precision.

Understanding Market Reactions and Adapting to Changes

The session kicks off with Redler reflecting on the previous trading day’s activities, emphasizing the constant need for traders to evaluate their strategies by reviewing charts, positions, and outcomes. Such retrospection helps identify what actions worked, what didn’t, and how one could have maximized gains or minimized losses. Redler stresses the importance of learning from these insights and promptly adapting to the evolving market landscape.

Examining Technical Indicators and Market Sentiments

Redler explains the significance of technical indicators like the S&P 500’s performance, which directly influences Fed’s monetary policies. He illustrates how the market’s complacency and the resulting unexpected shifts can catch even veteran traders off-guard. The analysis deepens with a discussion on technical sell rules and the critical nature of adjusting trades based on these guiding principles to safeguard investments.

Decoding Price Movements and Leveraging Sell Rules

Following a turbulent market day, Redler highlights the value of his repetitive postings about sell rules on social platforms. These rules serve as preventive measures to avoid significant losses in unexpected market downturns. For instance, selling into strength or exiting when the market doesn’t uphold the prior high are underscored as practical strategies to manage one’s portfolio effectively.

Strategic Positioning and Recovery Post-Market Shifts

The session also covers strategic responses when encountering sudden market shifts, such as retracement rules and identifying potential rejection points on a bounce back. Redler details how a market’s recovery trajectory can offer insights into future movements and potential entry or exit points, ensuring traders are well-prepared to make informed decisions.

Real-Time Chart Analysis and Predictive Insights

A significant portion of the analysis is devoted to real-time chart evaluations, where Redler uses Trend Spider software to demonstrate potential futures of market indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, guiding viewers through potential scenarios and their implications. Such granular analysis helps demystify complex market dynamics and equips traders with knowledge to anticipate and react to market volatilities.

Key Takeaways for Traders at All Levels

Scott Redler’s comprehensive live analysis not only provides a practical framework for understanding the stock market’s daily shifts but also reinforces the necessity of a disciplined trading strategy that includes:

• Vigilance in monitoring technical indicators and market sentiments.
• Consistent application of established trading rules to manage risks.
• Nimble adaptations to strategies in response to market movements.
• Leveraging tools and software for detailed market analysis.

By incorporating these strategies, traders can enhance their ability to navigate market complexities with greater confidence and precision. Scott Redler’s session underscores the continuous learning process in trading, where each day provides new data points and opportunities for refinement of tactics.

Watch this video below for more info:

Scott Redler’s #630club – LIVE Stock Market Analysis



2024-12-19 12:04:15
Visit https://www.t3live.com/scottebook to get Scott’s eBook today.

Scott Redler previews the market action with full analysis of #SPX #QQQ #Nvidia #Apple, #Tesla and more!

Video transcript:
[Music] all right good morning good morning it is 6:32 it is December 19th I hope everyone’s feeling well wow what a day huh guys um you know it’s interesting I’ve been doing this for 30 plus years and and I’ve you know been through so many days like yesterday and uh you know the only thing you could do is look back and and and look at the charts and look at the levels and then look at your positions and look at what you did right what you did wrong how could you have saved money how could you have made money how could you have been opportunistic you know did you follow your rules did you follow your process and you know and it’s it’s just so easy to see the next when you look back like oh my God all I had to do is sell it here and short it there all I had to do is you know wait for this level versus No Man’s Land all those things that that that go through your mind um either the night of or the day after and then what you do is you just write them down you learn from it and then you move on okay um at this point yesterday’s behind us the trade changed there was a lot of complacency out there there was a lot of Battlegrounds like you know the conversation was Will with the poor ad lines um where they were selling everything but keeping some mag seven up and this and that and like kind of hypnotizing who is going to win was Tech going to hold up and were we going to be in some kind of cruise control into year end or was the underlining weakness Gonna Roll us over with tech pulling back and breaking key levels and although everyone kind of knew that the FED would be hawkish sometimes what was that movie Reality Bites the reality of the situation is when the S&P is up 26 27% you can’t have an accommodating fed you can’t have a fed that’s going to say I’m going to cut 100 basis point you know next year when the S&P in two years you know what we’re up we’re up like 40 something percent so the only way the FED gets accommodative is if all of a sudden you get in a corrective stage sentiment gets poor and then all of a sudden like oh now we can cut because the Market’s taking rates lower and they say that they don’t watch the market but they do it is what it is now if you look here at the chart of um of the spies you look back and you know I I post these cell rules all the time and some people like red dog it’s after the fact I’m like it’s not after the fact okay I’ve been posting these cell rules for for a decade you know so if you go back to here okay um to the to the cell rules right that’s my rise and gr people like why do you post the same picture every day you’re not you know unique or or creative I’m like because this is what I do every day this is what I post every day to remind you that every day you’re Rising you’re grinding you’re getting your day going so you can think clearly so you can execute on the X’s and O’s that’s the Red Dog mindset by the way which you’re going to learn and be a part of next year but anyway I post these okay where is it um just to to print that where is here you go people like why do you always put that you know on a bad day I’m like I put this on a bad day because I want you to remember that there are different sell rules one you sell into to strength right you sell into to strength so you can book profits when when you can take profits when you can when that’s why when a gap’s in our favor we’re always trying to net money that’s one thing sell when it doesn’t hold the prior High because that means it’s not in the motion of the move so in order to go from from 7 to 10 it’s got to get above seven day above seven and get to 10 so the same way in order to get above the prior day and continue it’s got to stay about that so if it doesn’t and you add it for momentum shares you got to get out of the way then there’s another technical term when it goes red okay boom that it can do anything and then the trade really changes below a prior days low that’s what you call an outside day that means it really changed so there are four ways to adjust your process um in in in in the motion you know in the move besides overlaying levels and everything else so anyway you know that’s why I always post this printed out it’s just a way to adjust and keep yourself safe and sound you could actually Google I’ve been posting this for 10 years not just during a day like yesterday or or on a bad day okay so anyway um so that that was with this and that was when you know we weren’t even at here so this was yesterday during the day I’m like we had a a red dog reversal where one above a prior High didn’t hold it and then took out 6028 so right there that was the level we took out the 21 Day thousands of times I’ve written eBooks about when you’re blow the a21 day you have to adjust you’re no longer in the same type of trend which we’ve had and then I was saying I said to myself hey you know what maybe we hold 591 which would be the 50-day so that’s when I had my major loss yesterday I started buying a little bit ahead of 591 it blew through 591 went to 585 went down another five points I had way too much spies and I wanted to Blue instead of making and being at the highs of my year you know I I lost a bunch which which keeps me honest anyway you know I deserve to lose some money I was been in 20125 positions literally for um you know since September 11th pretty much so here we go let’s go back to where we were um hey there you are uh on on the 630 Club hopefully you guys are finding value here I’m helping you with your process and getting you ready for the day but anyway let’s go back to um let’s go back to the charts so anyway oh charts are gone so let me put it back up this is my friend’s Trend Spider by the way I I will be doing a webinar with with Trend spider today at 2:30 they’re going to teach me how to use some of my feel with some of their uh analytics and some of their Pro you know proprietary um uh sifters and this that but anyway so that so I posted that we were right here and then we blew through 591 went to 585 and wow what a move okay so always read the language because the language kind of tells you what happened and then you always look back so now I I I approached the day with so much less on so I’m okay with that the trade changed I’ll move forward some people like oh just buy the dip well you don’t know where this Dip’s going okay if you trade for a living and it’s December 19th you like I’m just going to buy the cloth you know you could have downside follow through last night the spies were trading at 583 there you know and then you have a gap down to the 100 day you know Nidia bounced off the 100 day key stocks went to the 100 day so if you’re just buying this CU like ah Buy the dip that’s the way you do it for 100 years okay but you could have continued to buy the dip lost a lot of money and who knows if we were going to bounce here so so what do you so what am I thinking now okay so here is um the spies okay getting a bit of a bounce back oops so let’s go back to there so it’s up 260 all right oh why does it keep disappearing on me let’s get back to here let’s move this higher there you go there you go okay so bottom line is you know you’re bouncing up 270 so we’re up a little bit so now you use retracement rules I posted those cheat sheets to retracement rules to figure out how much control does this candle have meaning what type of Bounce are we going to have you know did was this the get all the fluff out get all the complacency out get everyone negative then all of a sudden we rebuild and we grind back higher into the end of the year or does the rally get sold for continuation to the down move so the question is what type of bounceback do we have so if you know if right now we bounced to 591 which is another $2 from here we we you know if you put your overlay your retracement that’s probably a 382 per retracement I’m not going to do that right now but that would be a pretty feeble rally if we get here and then go red if we get here pause a little bit and then push up a little bit then you really have 596 so 596 was probably about 50% of this move or a little less that would be where if the sellers want a continuation move to the downside into the of the year they probably don’t let the Bulls retrace and reclaim 596 so in my head I’m putting out you know plan A B and C so one plan is maybe gets a and if you if you went home long because you took things on the like on the Clos I was talking to my friend py a lot of people said hey this is Extreme I’m taking things out on the lows or they bought it after hours then at least you trim some when this is up in your favor you know when when this is up 260 you trim a little bit but doesn’t mean but you don’t just short right here some guys like I’m going to short the open the trades change we’re going low we’re going to be at least at 576 but if you short 589 which is really no man’s land you know it could go two points more in your face and then you like okay then then all of a sudden it pushes through you’re like wow I just lost 101 15 grand and get out of the way and then 11:30 it reverses so you have to figure out you know how involved you want to be so to me again you know this 591 596 are two levels that I’m going to be watching that hey if you play a bounce maybe there’s room to there but make make sure you’re not buying there and if you’re looking to retrace or or short a bounce these are two spots you know the best scenario would have been if we were opening in the hole a little bit you could buy Versa 5 50 minute low in the hole Versa level so your risk is defined risk is defined and then you see where we could bounce to and you make some money um so at this point that’s that’s those are your levels here’s the low here is you know where it could potentially bounce back and get rejected and then this would be a big line in this end moving forward um and then the q’s you know woren is weak but very similar you know if you got out of the way here is your inside day that’s a dogee okay a DOI is a great small candle that once you see if you get above or below it helps with the direction which helped you could have helped you yesterday and we broke 534 so if you were playing for a bull flag continuation pattern that changed meaning that idea and that reason you were in a long for tactic continue changed so you get out of the trade some people like Red Dog where do you put your stops I’m like well when the trade changes you put your stops there and then you know broke the8 day came all the way into literally you know the prior High here so 515 is that low so this is your point of reference now now you know the 50 days all the way down here kind of similar the same thing like you know where do where does it reject price you know and I would think the qes would probably be a better spot to focus on than the spies of the diamonds because there’s more liquidity a lot of these names have buyback programs for you know December still so when everyone goes on vacation you want to stick to if you want to be long things that have mechanical buying um so I would say you know here you could also go to the qes so you go to the q’s and you overlay something else even sorry hold on this a spies so let’s put the q’s um qes are right here they’re only up two not a whole lot you could probably then take uh hold on you could probably take the you know the intr day from the other day let’s see here are the cues um like this you go to the intraday to see where you know where resistance is so I would say you know here on this bounce back you know if the Bears want to have some some control they probably don’t let the Bulls reclaim you know 524 and this is where the bounce was yesterday where where’s a hold on where’s the q’s let’s go to Q’s Q’s again right here Q’s are at 518 so then this is where it bounced back in the afternoon before coming to the low so this is really 521 so there’s probably room to 521 and then this 524 is kind of like the same thing for the spies at 596 so you kind of want to Overlay things um I will say that there you know you have to you have to you have to also just respect small wins and at least ways in your process that you lost less like sometimes losing less is winning so I was on with Liz Clayman and I was like you know what I’m going to buy some Diamond calls just just in case we hold this trend line and guess what I bought Diamond calls for $1.70 you know news came out they were very hawkish I’m like this isn’t going to work I sold them for a130 but my risk was premium paid you know I didn’t I didn’t do what I did with Des spies at the end of the day so this whole day was not a big deal I lost 40 cents I tried it but what you could learn from this is that a lot of things are are kind of looking to bounce off of trend lines and if the Dow could break a trend line like this don’t have a full sense of security that you could buy things on a trend line and they’re just going to work because it worked all year that those things can change so anyway pretty pretty big move and now you know so the the the diamonds are down at the 100 day the spies aren’t I mean the q’s aren’t even at the 50 day and the spies are just through the 50 days so you you got to see what you know what’s happening where so Tesla for instance is is still one of the strongest names it’s only at the E day I have to say you know if I was to give myself some props you know on this day I told you guys I was shorting in the 630 club with you not at the premium not I said I am shorting the 510 calls and the 530 calls and buying the TSL Q to hedge my small leftover Tesla along so yesterday I made a lot of money in Tesla actually to the downside yay right the qu a short anyway not bragging I’m just saying it was it was really extended so that was easier to see than the range breaking but anyway this broke forth for 57 that could have been your out it went as low as 427 and now what some people like hey you know look at Tesla it’s up 11 okay bottom line is um you know 457 would be a spot that if you’re like hey you know I I I got stopped out here or maybe look at this red dog reversal sell it went above 484 went to 488 and failed that could have been your out if you sold up here or sold when a broke you know bought the the the close which a lot of people probably didn’t do even I didn’t do that you now on a balance like where where can short like you know because things changed they want a shorter balce now which could be the way to do it so I would say this is this is 457 that’s probably a spot you know you could move this down to here on this so this is on the on the what’s it called on your intraday it could be 457 you know this actually is a little bit higher or so that would be the zone that if you were playing a bounce you probably want to sell into it and if you’re thinking that anybody who didn’t sell yesterday who was jumping out of their skin might want to sell into some strength you know then potentially uh this could be your spot to to take some off so that will be something that if you’re day trading maybe you could maybe you could short into 457 to see if it rolls over if it takes back 457 and and and all of a sudden really just um you know what’s the word um ignores that candle hey you know maybe maybe this was just a one- day wonder you know or maybe you could still be a buyer of Tesla but bottom line is this 48 to me will be the high of this week and maybe even that that might be the high of you know 2024 the way we know is how it trades today if it gets rejected here goes red you know that hey maybe you know you got to be a lot more careful if it doesn’t then some leaders are acting better so that’s just some of the thought process Amazon all these things look the same Amazon broke 228 you know in in my chart I if you might if you long Amazon for a move to take out 233 what does it have to do it has to whole 228 to broke that should have been your out stop should have went off everywhere for you if you’re an active Trader if you’ve been in Amazon for two years that’s not the case anyway let me say hello to some of my dogs around the world see how you guys are doing I have 32 comments right now I’ve been kind of rude Jose says hi from karakus Steve says hi from masipa suly says Nidia Bobby 4.0 great job dog that was an amazing call you gave all right a gift well oh oh the Fel blow up I just want to keep my dog safe listen you know I wish I could have stayed with this thing I was telling you guys literally for um you know right into here I’m like guys the chart looks good everyone’s like oh look at the chart F I’m like Fel is a scam there are these Chinese scam stocks where these you know big investors from China they manipulate this entire thing until all of a sudden you decide it’s over and there’s been a bunch of these so my friends make a living shorting these things for me it’s just not my game I like to be in control I like to know my Define risk and sometimes you could blow up a 400 so yes this is a scam went down to seven and you know people say it’s going to a dollar I would you know but it was it was hard to be shorted if you did but anyway I’m glad you guys stayed out of it and some guys made you know millions of dollars short that’s just not my game you know it’s hard enough to trade you know the the names that have liquidity and defined so anyway so Amazon what what would I be thinking in Amazon now chances are you could probably get a bounce back to 224 and then there you you know people might try and short that you know I’m just saying that’s that’s the way it goes now are people going to short rallies could happen so let’s go back so where where is Amazon right now Amazon is up at $2 it’s at 22250 so my thought process for Amazon would be like okay I’m not I have options on which probably aren’t going to work you know if you were saying hey you know this is now a big bearish engulfing candle which it is which got me out of my Longs now what could you do if you’re playing a bounce you could probably play the 224 if you’re looking to see if it rolls over 224 is resistance and then 228 so the trade is changing now if all of a sudden you know it doesn’t um can you look at Uber yeah I can look at Uber Uber looked better yesterday but anyway so so basically I’m going to map out resistance one resistance two to see what kind of Bounce we have back and everything you could think this is just the process and the thought for today and you could overly it with whatever you’re doing so for instance Amazon would be 224 then 228 you know meta would be uh probably uh 605 right 605 is one spot this is you know right here which are blew through and then this is 616 if you were long meta which is what my you know my you always have to read the charts I’m like if you’re playing meta to take out 638 with a nice bull flag it’s got to hold 616 what did it do it broke 616 yesterday that was your route anyway if you stayed with it you stayed with it if you’ve been an investor meta for a year or two you’re not trading actively for a living so now what so now if you’re Trad here’s meta okay meta uh is up seven that’s a pretty big bounce you know from 596 back to 604 um some guys would probably short this it’ll put a 55 minute high in anyone who didn’t sell yesterday like oh wow oh my God I can’t believe I didn’t sell yesterday went to 596 now it’s up seven points oh I could Salvage seven points let me sell it that’s why people sell a bounce after a big down day and maybe it rolls over you want me to check out P here for you um pener kind of held it a little bit very choppy here you know I wouldn’t be in a rush to buy palen here you know it’s definitely stronger than everything else um it’s up a124 I think you know it’s impressive um this has kind of gave me some reasons remember mik Reddit paler and dash are all like the super growth names that are getting very loose and wide so it’s giving me some caution on mag 7 besides the ad lines being horrible and every other stock out there I would say if you’re still in this this is where you want want to put your stop put your stop right here at this low this I think it’s very impressive that this held so you know leadership wise paler is still leader Tesla’s still a leader Reddit wasn’t so horrible either Reddit just got below the 8 day but you got to be a little careful um the low here is what 15775 um this this was what people had as their stop um what’s Reddit doing this morning Reddit is up 280 so this is still okay I would reduce a little bit um just because you know Dash was bad Dash you know but Dash gave me signals I was talking to my friends my friends who are of the institutional money who have been you know in this sincere I said guys I’m like guys I understand you know you make millions and you manage billions I’m like but Reddit flashed a little sell signal it flashed a sell signal um when it went to the highs and came back below we know what that is the sell signal is a red dog reversal so here is your sell signal not blaring loose and wide very choppy this this I know got me on alert and then I I sold out I got stopped out of 173 why because it was below this inside range below the 21 day I Sav myself eight points so if you have a thousand shares of of Dash and you got out because you’re active and you trade for a living you saved yourself eight points of pain besides buying more on the way down and losing more besides what you had so things change and my job is to teach you how to you know approach these things when they change um mister I told you guys Mr hasn’t been acting well you know Mister they’ve sold strength every single time I I think saor you know he’s a smart guy he’s a billionaire a lot of people made a lot of money in crypto and these things but you know I I I told you guys be careful I I had this into into Monday and I sold everything out why here’s first your outside day like Mister remember that you couldn’t fail it to hold right get above and stay above did it do it no then here double top at 453 then this was coming into them being added to NASDAQ 100 I was in MST it was up nicely sold it they sold strength again then it broke the 8 day then it broke the 21 Day this trend is broken it’s broken I don’t care I’m just saying you know and now it’s probably up a little bit because crypto’s up a little bit where’s Mister right now it’s up 17 at 367 so this is 363 um this low is what 386 I would not be buying this open and Mis if anything you know if you some guys might short it some guys you know um I don’t know what you guys are going to do um let me draw another line here but Mister um this outside day never took back more than 50% so that stayed in control remember I told you this smci I showed you the comparison I’m like remember when smci was fantastic and it had a huge move and everyone loved it and it was on above the 8 21 day then it went sideways they were selling strength this entire time before it broke not saying this is GNA Happ the Mis but it was a good comparison you know and now uh let’s get back to mister here so Mister has been hard okay everyone started to get like you know Mr Mr shaded rose rosec colored glasses I would say I’d rather see you sell the open then then buy the open in this um but it’s already above 363 so I would say 386 is probably a spot or the 21 day which is like 375 so again this one’s been down for three days so it might might be a little bit bouncier um but again tra the the trade changes the trade always changes here it was awesome it was the momentum was locked in uh shorts were were caught and then it and then it all basically got on the distribution in there um Bitcoin itself what about space companies it all depends it depends if yesterday was you know the day that they just you know wiped out all the excess um fluff and then now we grind back and you volatility gets constricted and we up go up a little bit here a little bit there and depends on how how fast things rebuild themselves can anything work could the little guys work in the next week or two while the indices head lower or was yesterday the low of this move we don’t know you know everyone’s asking questions what’s next what’s next what’s next I’m telling you how to figure out what’s next you know what type of Bounce do we have over the next two days is there an appetite for stocks down here in Risk how do the leaders react do the stocks that are still above the E day all of a sudden start to show relative weak weakness and break yesterday’s low while the indices don’t so these are all the things you have to think about to figure out what’s next and what is worthy of your risk Capital um you know ibit also you know filled the Gap um and uh it’s still above the 21 day but at the8 day I I still have some on I still have some leftover options on um but I’m I’m in I’m in you know I’m in careful mode the trade changed for me I’m not going to be in a 20 names I’m not massaging things for higher lows and higher highs now I’m playing ranges I’m going to be playing with Conrad here Conrad he’s been trading for a bunch of years he’s 20 years old he’s day trading and figuring out how to play levels and make you know money each day I’m GNA figure out how to make you know some money each day based on the open based on the ranges and based on what groups I’m trading until the market gives me more confidence that I know what the next direction is because it’s hard to know what the next direction is here you know the S&P is still up what you know 23% on the year is it going to close up 177% on the year or is it going to up one or 2% higher from here it’s a guess if anyone has a strong opinion okay they you know be careful because usually strong opinions is what gets you in trouble not having multiple plans and mapping out levels and having a routine in the process to figure out what’s next yes it’s kind of sniper mode Bobby it’s you know lowrisk and I’ve been saying I want to play defense for like a week I’m like I’m at the highs of my ear my hair you know you know the ad lines are crap you know some things are extended I’m I’m trying to do less and still that where I lost the majority of my money yesterday is I was buying the spies into this area and then you know there was just no there was just no bids so you know I I actually you know didn’t sell the bottom but into the move back up I reduced a little bit and I and if you have listen if you have 15 names on and even if you only have a third left like I I sell on to strength I I book profits you know the whole nine yards but if you have 10 things left and everything is down a lot and you have a third of a trailer on and you have 10 trailers that should be sold which is what I did yesterday those 10 trailers add up to money so you know it’s cost of doing business there’s always a cost of doing business um I did have some Hedges on that help but anyway you never have enough so here we are that was then this is now we’re going to move forward the trade changes the trade’s been changing for me for 30 years changes usually 10 12 times a year and yesterday changed the trade did you react were you fast was your mind right to execute on the X’s knows that’s one thing you can’t control is how your mind is doing what you’re doing in the morning to prepare and how you’re situated and that’s what we’re going to work on in 2025 all right guys good luck today I appreciate you