2024-12-10

Navigating the fluctuations of the financial markets can be complex, but with insights from experts like Christian Tharp, CMT, investors and traders can gain a clearer perspective on current trends and future possibilities. In a recent LIVE Marketcast Call, Tharp discussed various aspects of the market dynamics that are essential for both seasoned investors and newcomers to understand. Let’s delve into the key points and takeaways from this enlightening session.

Understanding Current Market Trends

The session kicked off with an overview of the prevailing market conditions. Notably, the market has shown a consistent uptrend, with the NASDAQ spearheading this movement upwards, often appearing to pull the S&P 500 along with it. Despite this upward trajectory, Tharp pointed out a contrast with indices like the NYSE, Dow, and Russell, which showed a slight downturn or stalling movement.

Divergence in Market Indices

It’s interesting to note the divergence among major market indices. While the NASDAQ and S&P 500 have hit new highs, other indices like the NYSE and Russell have not mirrored this performance. This split movement could typically raise concerns about the market’s overall health, yet the historical frequency of such occurrences in this year makes it a less alarming signal.

Seasonality and Market Performance

Tharp discussed the concept of seasonality, emphasizing the typical market behaviors observed around this time of the year. Mid-December often presents the last opportunity for market weakness before year-end, which potentially aligns with the holiday season and the anticipated "Santa Claus rally." Understanding these patterns can be crucial for timing investments and trades more strategically.

Tactical Market Observations

During his presentation, Tharp examined specific details such as the performance of the Advanced Decline Line and its implications. A weak Advanced Decline Line amidst new highs in major indices could suggest caution. Yet, as Tharp elaborated, these indicators are not foolproof and should not be used in isolation to forecast market moves definitively.

Staying Prepared for Corrections

Interestingly, Tharp touched on the notion of market corrections — a topic often sensationalized by media. He clarified the difference between typical market pullbacks and corrections, suggesting that while pullbacks have been relatively mild recently, a more significant correction is always a possibility that investors should be mindful of.

Key Stock Movements and Strategies

Several individual stocks were highlighted for their recent performances and potential future movements. Notable mentions included tech giants like Tesla, Apple, and Microsoft, all showing significant market activities and offering potential opportunities depending on future pullbacks and sustained breaks above key resistance levels.

Potential Breakouts and Pullbacks

Tharp suggested watching for potential breakouts or pullbacks in specific stocks. For instance, with Tesla nearing a price target of around $400, a pullback could present a re-entry point. Similar considerations were proposed for stocks like Meta and Microsoft, where recent breakouts could lead to favorable re-entry on pullbacks to support levels.

Conclusion: Market Resilience and Investor Strategy

In concluding his market analysis, Christian Tharp CMT reinforced the resilience of the market’s upward trend despite underlying non-confirmations and divergences. While maintaining awareness of these signals is crucial, the overt strength of the market should not be underestimated. Investors and traders are advised to stay observant but also ready to capitalize on the opportunities that align with the broader bullish sentiment.

Investing in the financial markets involves navigating through complexities and uncertainties. Insights from seasoned analysts like Christian Tharp provide invaluable guidance, helping to demystify market movements and enhance strategic decision-making for investors at all levels of experience. Whether you’re looking to adjust your portfolio or seeking new entry points, staying informed and responsive to market signals is key to navigating the ever-evolving financial landscape.

Watch this video below for more info:

LIVE Marketcast Call W/ Christian Tharp, CMT



2024-12-10 02:37:34
https://www.t3live.com/scott-gap-ebook-yt to get Scott Redler’s new gap trading ebook. Includes case studies on trading Microosft, Netflix, Shopify, Tesla, and Meta with stock and options.

Video transcript:
all right good morning everyone and happy Monday hope everyone is doing well and as usual if you wouldn’t mind just chiming in let know you can hear me and you know just making sure everything is working give everybody a few minutes here to Vlog on all right good morning all of you yeah bar we had that sun yesterday it was a pretty nice little day here but the rain has moved in it has moved in e all right I think that’s a few enough minutes talk a little market stuff um obviously as you can see Market not doing anything different last week than it did the week before simply moving higher each day although we are seeing that Trend uh that we’ve been seeing quite often throughout the year here’s your NASDAQ really kind of leading the charge almost as if to drag the S&P with it but both kind of going on to hit new highs multiple times last week but then the flip side of that we have an NYC that’s been drifting lower a dow that’s been stalling slash lower a Russell that’s been drifting lower all right so we’ve seen this quite often this year uh three of them go One Direction two go the other if those two go the opposite direction then the other three go the other direction so very very common however overall trend is simply up across the board and uh what was cleared last week as of right now oh we got a NASDAQ leading a charge uh normally we might say hm you know are we concerned about the health of the market um but since we have seen this happen so many times this year um with those three indices just kind of going a separate Direction it’s hard to get to worked up over it and clearly the trend is up now do keep in mind when it comes to seasonality for what that’s worth um you know kind of like the last chance for some weakness here before the end of the year is right around now kind of like the mid-mon of December and then uh assuming all goes you know as planned that end of the month beginning of the year Chris Santa you know Santa Claus Christmas rally there so don’t be surprised now when you look at the NASDAQ here I mean nothing about that looks like something that’s dropping today or anything but again all pullbacks and or Corrections have to start somewhere but pretty convincing way to end the week for the NASDAQ S&P looked pretty good as well um you know I think we’re always going to have a little bit of caution here uh pretty good pretty good runs since the bull market low we’ve done relatively well I think we’ve only had I don’t even know if we’ve actually had an actual correction I know the clowns on the financial networks like to call everything a correction right because they’re a joke but um you know a pullback I mean if everything’s a correction then I guess pullback is not a word doesn’t exist I mean because I thought you could have a pullback or a correction a correction is a large pullback of course but a pullback isn’t a correction so I don’t I want to say this maybe barely went into correction like 11 or 12% or something but uh we definitely haven’t had a doozy right a nice big 15 to 20 percenter or something so we haven’t had one since uh since we kind of came off our lows so certainly um I suppose one can make the case that uh we are due narrow it in here I think this right we fell from 40600 I mean this barely I mean not enough to where I’d even say it was a correction right because 10% I’m talking about a technical of course again the clowns on TV act like they don’t know what that is um it’s almost like they get their feelings hurt if they can’t call something a correction but uh the adults in your room know what we’re talking about right we’re talking about like 10% or more type idea um not in the grand scheme of things it matters all that much which is why I don’t understand why sometimes these guys it’s really hard for them to say that but 10 uh moving across the 10% would have obviously put you at 41 40ish um 4100 and you can kind of see that’s exactly where the low was so even this was only around 10% I think this was 10% so it’s almost like the market has been kind of insistent on staying out of that 10% range or that correction area um it can’t do it forever never has never will so um when that comes you know there are things that we’ve talked about that I think are worth just just keep in mind that historically you know um Corrections and you know bare Market Corrections have commonly followed the start of easing Cycles so worth noting there you know maybe that still happens maybe not maybe quote This Time It’s Different the other thing I think it’s worth noting is when you look at last week we looked at this before and we had talked about this Advanced decline line this non-confirmation here right and apparently right kind of wiped it out once we moved up to the new Highs but you notice last week notice how our decline against the CL was dropping uh every day last week as matter of fact if you look closer you’ll see this S&P not four new all-time highs and if you look right um you kind of see how all we do was just kind of keep falling right towards the end of the week so so not the greatest look in the world right but lately the market hasn’t cared so do we care it is what it is one thing that that you always want to keep in mind when you talk about any non-confirmation any kind of divergences got to make we got to make sure we get it right again it’s another one of those things some of the you know the clowns um the bobbleheads I like to call them don’t understand about technical analysis if you understand technical analysis and charting and chart workk and things of that nature then you understand that no one’s ever saying anything’s perfect any more than somebody’s fundamentals are perfect or their PE ratio nothing’s perfect in markets right if something was then trading would be pretty darn easy right so no one’s expecting every time there’s a breakout that we you know run to the Moon uh if you truly understand technical analysis then you know you have false breakouts fake outs right so so same thing here when you talk about momentum Divergence is there any Divergence for that matter any non-confirmation for that matter um just because they form doesn’t mean what they imply is going to happen right so other just because we had a right back here we had this kind of non-confirmation with the advanced decline line that doesn’t mean we’re definitely falling right no more than when we see momentum divergences it doesn’t mean that we’re definitely falling or rallying however commonly when we do go on big declines or big rallies those types of non-confirmation and divergences are there right so you just want to make sure you understand understand that the correct way right so what’ll happen is something like this fails and then someone thinks oh that doesn’t work it doesn’t mean anything then the next time they get caught with their pants down right no one said it’s supposed to happen every time as a matter of fact we kind of make it very clear that when you’re in a nice sustained bull move your bearish signals or signs are going to fail more often right they’re going to fall prey to the current no different than a bare Market current the bullish things are more likely to fail so not only is it not expected this is going to work we expect it to fail more often than we’d prefer doesn’t mean we go running around ignoring it or anything right now what we’d like to see when things like this occur it’s kind of like when this one here we really kind of want to see this right this old line break right so that we knew it wasn’t just a pullback I thought it was going to break didn’t right based on what we see here and again just kind of like that feeling of hey we’re kind of doe you know for a nasty one um it didn’t happen right so you kind of look for that price confirmation so I do think there are reasons still reason to be a little concerned I suppose but you know at the end of the day we kind of got a uh um you know Mark that certainly doesn’t seem to care about anything other than going up as I like to jokingly say right as long as there’s an earth tomorrow apparently we’re going higher like there just there’s no reason to ever drop and hey that by itself a lot of times is kind of bearish right when just it’s just so capped and obvious uh when everybody is bullish that’s probably one of the bigger concerns problem is you can’t really put a day dime or Penny on that that type of condition can you know last for quite some time so for now path is up uh NASDAQ seems to be leading the way so keep that in mind saw a lot of great breakouts last week um let’s see so these are ones that I’d kind of prefer to see pullbacks on Tesla we looked at this tried to go long at the end of last week thinking it was going to go to 400 sure looks like it’s going to do today problem is the premiums just didn’t really justify the move um at least you know in our realm somebody’s looking for a 10 I’m 20 30% gain sure but uh for us unfortunately if this trade had been on a Thursday we would have taken it in a heartbeat it would been huge but but uh point is one the stock is sending a message of moving higher our Target was 400 on the break so if you look at that little penet there or that little triangle IT projects to around you know 400 maybe a little higher the second thing is if it pulls back you can get a pull back to that 360 might be a great time for a re-entry same thing with meta over here we were kind of hopeful for a pull to 600 last week didn’t after the breakout you see that nice little breakout on Tuesday so if we can get ourselves a pullback and remember pullbacks are good things like we can get stuff like this back at 600 and get a good play Tesla back there at that 360 or apple looks like it might be rolling over now so give somebody you know another opportunity back here at 237 is right I wouldn’t be surprised if it held up at 240 just a you know kind of Psych number but this would be where you’re kind of looking your chops for a re-entry there so we had some really good breakouts there uh Microsoft not quite quite as wonderful of a breakout but that 440 level you know certainly seems to matter we took that out last week so pull back to 440 we would think it would hold and if it doesn’t doesn’t mean it’s not still trending higher you know there’s no rule saying it has to but that’s that’s where we might expect it to um one that we are going to keep an eye on for a we’ll call it a breakout watch keep an eye on this pretty nice uh 185 is up top almost looks more like 186 but I don’t know Stu to say it’s more of like an area so I might go with the 185 bottom line get a close you’ll notice none of these closed with any confusion right they all kind of made a very clear they’ pushed through so I just wouldn’t want to be like right here again like that but the downside of waiting for that break is each one of these ones that we thought was going to break out that eventually did the problem is um you know it did it in like a convincing fashion and then we’re kind of miss out on the trade makes it a little difficult so but with the market pointing higher stock pointing higher this being the ideal Target certainly uh somebody could look at this thing at uh yeah I don’t know it’s kind of pricey though but keep mind you’re banking on a breakout right so that’s what we’d be doing because there’s a lot of money to be made to run from here to here again it’s not even like 40% gain which to me isn’t really worth doing for the risk you know uh so we’d think that you probably end up with some sort of breakout like these others where it keeps going but the good news is you’re already in it so all right so we’re still watching broadcom um looked like Burlington was take a nice shot at that 300 but I guess not but we are still keeping an eye on it patiently waiting uh we had snow last week take out that 180 Mark as you can see on Friday came down and um came dangerously close to testing it so it could pull back a little further so if we do get a pullback I’d expect to hold that 180 and try to run up there to that Gap window if you can so this was one that took out a mark for us let’s see who else who else I think that might have been it the ones we were looking at I mean we’re still watching smci I it keep stalling up here against what appears to be this 45 you got a real narrow window here it takes out 45 still trying to get to 50 but you’ll see obviously three out of those last five days just getting right up there and just can’t seem to get through so point is a lot of good stocks a lot of good levels to watch I don’t I remember anything down here yeah nothing done there I mean I know Lulu had earnings towards the end of last week nice good pop there I just don’t know if I do anything here um I don’t know I have to go back and look and see if these levels still matter maybe they do these are obviously from the day back in the day you can kind of see whatever it was it held here so 385 and then this is the top obviously the gap down you got this 385 320 when it comes to the earning stuff I’m not a huge fan of trying to do too much trying to pick a direction it’s hard I think it’s hard to say strangling it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense this early in the week gold man it just would not break that 2650 guess I never would have thought that was that major of a mark there okay what else we got here uh MDB has earnings today oh I can’t imagine what those premiums must be wow see last earnings it jumped closed 245 at the open think it was up 30 the open so it wasn’t up huge oh I’m sorry I me opened up high on that 290 so 45 bucks so no that’s not too bad about 20% jump close to it it was 20% at the high this one here even worse this one didn’t do as much though this one didn’t do anything really so even if you tried to bank on a 20center remember you H One Direction or the other I don’t I don’t know if it’s realistic I’d probably go ahead and just a on the side of up seems to be where most of happening but look at that even the 400s are eight bucks yeah yeah if I was going to pick a side I’d probably pick up and I’d go uh probably 400 yeah pretty pricey hard to do much with that but all right so let’s see all right so we got a lot of we got several stocks to watch on a Amazon by the way last week go get him guy it’s hard to want to do anything with that now but man really frustrating considering two weeks ago we had those two10 rolled them down to the 20 750s wait until Monday to finally jump and get going disappointing but anyway spill milk Bridges water under all that stuff so these are the ones I’d be paying attention to um look at AI the other day so we’ve got the ones that have already broken out we’ve got Tesla should be nice to get a pullback on these Apple Microsoft look like the closest one to getting a a pullback and then uh watching for a breakout there I had a student from my coaching program tell me they were they went to into a Burlington for the first time I had made a comment that I went to the mall for the first time um to get something I think it was on Saturday and I had not been to the mall near me I mean it’s got to be years and I just couldn’t believe how much of the mall was vacant um the second floor I would say had to be no less than 75% vacant couldn’t believe it and towards the anchor stores it was completely vacant where most of the stores were were on the second floor we above the food court where the elevator is so in other words obviously first one’s out of the elevator and I figured well downstairs is probably full nope I’d say at least a third of those stores were vacant and then of all the stores that were there I remember back in the day I mean it was all name brand stores most of these stores were just seemed like fly by nights or Mom and Pops very very few that you know that I remember from again seems like I always knew the stores that were in the mall so I was joking with some friends of mine like you know we ought to do is we got to go buy a mall and uh turn it into one big Paintball Zone you know you could rent the store spaces as that’s the clubhouse for a team so if you want to have a team this is your space that’s where you can keep your equipment you know have your get together do whatever you do just kidding around since we play disc golf one guy responded or we could play discol through the mall and my response is well why not both why don’t we have you know what is it the uh what’s the two factions uh are Waring each other Chester Fields no uh gosh what was that called something McCoy McCoys and Hatfields is that right Hatfields Hatfield McCoy that’s it I think that’s right and I said you know you can have the paintball paintballers shooting at the disc golfers or they have to shoot the discs like ski and the disc golfers get to throw it at the you know paintballers because they’ve got the body armor on and stuff but anyway I digress he had mentioned that you know I had never been into a Burlington before he’s like I actually just went into a Burlington store this week and uh another was the mall there just wasn’t a lot of people there on a Saturday like three less than three weeks out for Christmas I remember like just going to the mall I hated it because it was just just swamped it was like this was not even busy not even close if anything it looked like it was a week day and he said that uh he had been to a Burlington store and it was backed during the weeks like it was full of people so like well there you go I haven’t been into it I think bar you and I talked to this a long time ago I hadn’t been to a Burlington the last time I was out of Burlington it was still called a Burlington Coat Factory so guess times are changing anyway so we can get through this 300 I think that’s about it all we were watching look around a little bit let’s let’s go around the horn like there’s somebody we’re missing Donald’s looks bearish it’s pretty bearish candle obviously there’s the UNH we crushed that one at the end of the week I would expect volatility to continue for well keep in mind this was a volatile stock most of the time anyway so all right Markus open I know everybody wants to get out there and make some trades so we’ll hop off otherwise uh oh wow Berry I might have to go take a look at prices like that I could use a new coat I could use a different color coat my life gives me a hard time because all I wear is like things with hoodies on them and hoods so all my jackets have like hoodie coats but all right everybody get to trade just real quick question about uh holiday time I will be doing a market cast call the week of Christmas but that’s it the rest of everything wealth Pop Brand all that is is Clos basically for that week and for the beginning of the following so there won’t be a marketcast call whatever that next Monday is uh’s that be it’s the 30th maybe let me think 25 something like that but there will be one the week leading up to Christmas all right hey good luck in the trading every this week let’s make some money talk to you next week