December 10, 2024

Breaking Down Tesla’s Move: Insights from Derrick Oldensmith

In a detailed discussion on Tesla’s stock performance and broader trading strategies, Derrick Oldensmith, a seasoned prop trader from T3 Trading Group, shared his insights during a live session hosted by Greta Wall. Derrick’s analysis not only focused on Tesla but also touched on various aspects of current market dynamics, providing a deep dive into practical trading tactics and considerations for handling big market moves.

Tesla’s Trajectory and Trading Strategy

The Initial Surge to $400

Derrick kicked off the talk with a look at Tesla’s recent uptick to over $400, a move initially sparked by a significant bounce from $378 to $389 during the last trading hour on a previous Friday. This rally was attributed to S&P rebalances. Derrick emphasized the technical setup that led to this surge—an ascending wedge pattern on Tesla’s chart, which indicated a strong bullish scenario.

The Breakdown Post $400 Mark

Despite the high, Tesla’s stock retreated into the $380s, showing a sharp decline from its peak. Derrick revealed that he had shorted Tesla, capitalizing on this pullback. His strategy was to target a retracement dealing with the price’s significant overextension relative to its 8-day moving average (ADMA). Derrick used a combination of high-level analysis on Tesla’s daily chart and finer details from the five-minute chart setups to enter and exit his trade, illustrating a disciplined approach to handling rapid price movements.

Expanding Trading Horizons Beyond Day Trading

Throughout the session, Derrick highlighted the evolution of his trading style from purely day trading to incorporating longer hold periods. By extending the duration of his trades, Derrick aimed to capitalize on the initial day-one breakouts for extended profitability rather than limiting the potential gains to intraday moves.

Insights into Other Market Movements

Handling Other Stocks and Market Conditions

Derrick also shared his experiences and strategies with other stocks like Palantir and key Chinese tech stocks. He discussed the dynamic nature of these companies, incorporating global economic conditions and market speculations, such as government interventions and news impacts.

The Importance of Watching Market Extensions

A significant part of Derrick’s strategy is closely monitoring market extensions and their sustainability. He provided insights into how extended markets often signal a need for caution, emphasizing the importance of recognizing when a stock or a market might be overbought or subject to a sharp correction.

Trading Philosophies and Strategies

Derrick’s discussion underscored several key philosophies:

1. Multi-Faceted Analysis: Utilizing both long-term trends and short-term movements to make informed trading decisions.
2. Risk Management: Understanding when to enter and exit positions based on predefined risk parameters and market behavior.
3. Adaptability: Shifting strategies based on market conditions and personal trading growth.

Conclusion: Leveraging Market Movements for Strategic Trading

Derrick Oldensmith’s walkthrough of Tesla’s price fluctuations served as a practical framework for traders looking to leverage market movements strategically. His approach combined technical analysis, market timing, and a clear understanding of risk factors, providing a blueprint for navigating volatile stocks.

Through this session, traders and market enthusiasts were offered a glimpse into the disciplined, multi-layered approach necessary for successful trading in today’s fast-paced market environments. By considering both micro and macroeconomic factors, Derrick demonstrated effective trading across various market conditions, offering valuable lessons for both novice and experienced traders.

Watch this video below for more info:

Breaking Down Tesla’s Move LIVE with Derrick Oldensmith



2024-12-10 06:12:54
Visit https://t3live.com/dolive to get Derrick’s free prop trading ebook.

Derrick discusses:

-If Tesla will hit $400
-The impact of China’s anti-monopoly investigation on Nvidia
-The broadening market
-The importance of this week’s inflation data
-And more

Get Derrick’s free prop trading ebook: https://t3live.com/dolive

Video transcript:
all right hello hello everyone happy Monday I’m your host Greta wall and I’m joined by Derek Olden Smith a professional prop Trader with T3 Trading Group and the leader of T3 lives prodesk a virtual trading floor happy Monday Dereck how’s your day going so far happy Monday uh my my day is going going great um if the market were to close right now I think that today would be the highest p&l I’ve ever had in a single trading session so wow so far so good but I still got three and a half I still have three and a half hours to go negative so you still have three and a half hours to make more that’s think about think about it positively that could happen also all right uh quickly let’s take a look uh these are the current positions D is holding as of 12:29 p.m. eastern time as I mentioned he is a professional prop Trader with T3 Trading group uh so it’s a disclosure purposes as we discuss different names here is what he is currently trading Derek our topic for the day among many other topics but I want to break down what’s happened with Tesla uh with you today um obviously we were waiting for Tesla to hit 400 and then it did this morning I think the high of the day was 40489 or right around there uh and then kind of has fallen off cliff since then and we’re down in like the 380s since hitting that 400 Mark what do you think about the move to 400 and giving it up uh this morning for Tesla yeah I shorted Tesla today I’m out of the position now I made a few dollars in it um Let me let me get my screen share going here real quick let’s just just just Dive Right into that so Tesla on Friday had a huge move into the close and that big move into the close may have had something to do with the rebalances that were happening we we had big S&P rebalances on Friday and you can just see here on my f minute chart in the last hour of the day Tesla ripped from 378 to a close at 389 uh so big big move in a pretty short period of time and then continued to trade even higher after hours then gapped up this morning popping back over to the daily chart um there was a beautiful breakout here at 360 it was the area between 360 and 36150 and it’s a great technical chart pattern into that breakout you have a beautiful bullish ascending wedge into it it really tightens out at the end of that pattern the adma is totally caught up to the price action that’s all the things that I like to see to prepare for a breakout and then I guess that was on Thursday of last week we had actually called for in the morning it was on my my list to trade ideas for the day a breakout buy through that 360 and it was great you could have bought a little bit above 360 you probably didn’t want to chase too much but if you bought 360 specifically you could have been involved in in the the the Tesla breakout for 50 cents risk versus the opening low which uh that’s an incredibly small amount of risk for Tesla and how Tesla trades within 20 minutes you CAU a move up to 374 375 so that is risking 50 cents to be able to make uh 1415 and and that was just in 20 minutes if you decided to then swing some of that you got follow through on that trade to over $400 this morning so that’s and and this by the way is why I am no longer a pure day trader you know I started my career as a pure day trader the first few years of my career and I do still day trade but the longer I’ve been in the business the longer my average hold time has become on my trades and at this point while I still believe in day trading for cash flow and I still do it I think that day trading only and day trading just Ju Just day trading specifically and you never swing is reward limited because if you have a beautiful breakout a beautiful potential day one on the daily chart in Tesla and then it closes well and you have a really big profit cushion keep a percentage of that as a swing trade to see if the money that you’re making can become more I mean that’s really how you maximize reward on the risk that you put on so if you took that as more than a day trade if you if you kept it as a swing you got a beautiful Daye two on Friday especially with that run up into the close like we just discussed and then you got the big day three Gap up this morning at this point the Gap up this morning though then makes the stock very extended and I know I’ve spoken with you in the past on you know some of our our conversations that we have about like counting days a little bit you know day one breakout great you want to be involved in the breakout day two like this day two where where Tesla went from from a low of 371 to a high of almost almost 390 I actually usually don’t like being in the day tws because the day two you can still really get continuation but you have a much worse risk reward and probability of success if you’re buying Tesla at 380 when the real trigger price or the breakout is 360 so you can still look for for day trading opportunities for that day two continuation but as often as you get a day two continuation you get a day two that’s like a a consolidation day and if you’re really trying to force it and trying to be involved when you miss the initial move you end up just kind of chopping yourself out that’s why I mean on the day two I usually don’t like to trade day TW is because the risk reward and probability success isn’t good enough there but it’s also too early to short at that point because a lot of stocks will give a really big really good day two as Tesla did it closed on highs it’s once you start getting into like a day three or day four or even day five Gap up that at that point I’m I’m not only no longer buying but I’m potentially looking for opportunity needs to go to the other side so this morning Tesla you know gaps up pre-market trading around that $400 area the adma on the daily chart which is broadly how I I measure like a first degree of extension is down to 365 so you know I’ve got $35 of upside extension on a day three Gap up in Tesla for me at this point not only am I not buying it I’m I’m looking to see if there are opportunities to short I I I didn’t trade Tesla right away right off the open I know some of the Traders in the team focusing on this upside tail that came in on the second five minute bar of the day where it pushed through 400 failed came back down for me my trade was the little lower high that came in so you had a potential pivot off the adma on the five minute chart which is also bullish at um 9:45 and by the way this is also why understanding multiple time frames is so important if you are a a microscopic Trader and you are only looking at a fivem minute chart this this is this is an opportunity to buy this I actually not knowing for a second what the daily chart looks like if I was just giving you an an analysis of a five-minute chart I love this is a here you have some upside extension that’s coming from a gap up it it it overshoots it a little bit further gives a good technical pullback to this edma on the F minute creates a pivot low and starts to tail up I just from a five minute chart analysis perspective actually love a long off of that chart pattern but not when the daily chart is on a day three and it’s $40 $35 extended from the adma on The Daily that’s why again multiple time frames are so important the big picture tells me what I want to do the small picture tells me how I want to execute it the big picture is saying you’re not buying a a day three to the upside with this degree of extension that’s crazy even if the five minute looks good so I’m watching it and then I see this potential little lower high come in this thing is not pushing back through 400 in the way that it should so I think I I think I shorted it on the the 10: a.m. bar here at like 398 and change just versus the the high of the last pivot which was 399 27 or so so I had like a little bit over a dollar risk which again in Tesla is not much at all and was able to capture this pullback I had a target of 378 on my trade um oh I’m just I’m only seeing right now and and this is luck not skill I want to make that clear uh I I I bought 37801 to get out and and the low is 37801 on that pullback that that’s 100% luck I’m not going to take any credit for being a skillful Trader there I just I just wanted to see a pullback that retraced this last hour move on the stock yeah if if I wanted to be greedy I could look for a deeper pullback to like 370 is or so on Tesla but for me this was just kind of a quicker cuter day trade I was managing a much much larger position in paler at at the same time which was um you know my my bigger focus on the day but now at this point we had this pullback in Tesla and the stock NOW needs to reset up so in in so far as going forward from here stocks work in periods of expansion and consolidation over time the consolidation periods create setups the expansion periods are where you make your money this period of time that led to the $360 breakout Tesla was tough in here for a little while because it was in that consolidation period it was in that period where it’s creating the 360 breakout setup then we get the breakout you get this beautiful you know and a half day long trade followed by a potential cute little short trade today as the stock goes into expansion mode and now guess what the Stock’s going to become a little bit more difficult again while we wait for it to reset up that that’s a great general rule for for pretty much any stock or any Market on how they work in so far as periods of setting up and then and then working or not working and we want to keep that in mind because I see a lot of Traders all the time who like the move just happened and now today they’re buying $400 because they have fomo or whatever because the stock went $40 and they weren’t involved that’s exactly when you when you don’t want to be involved right all right you say you were managing a bigger position in paler while you were shorting Tesla you’ve been uh pretty opinionated about paler in the past few weeks what are what were you doing with paler this morning I know last week you were still fighting this short right yeah yeah so so give me an update again in in the interest to full disclosure uh definitely have been getting smoked in in paler on the short side luckily outside of paler I’ve been a super super Bull on this market so I’ve been like long everywhere that I can get my hands on like a month now um so those Longs have been helping to offset you know some of these losses i’ I’ve had from from battling paler paler somewhat similar to Tesla really actually broke out to the upside last week and seeing that and this is why this has been such a great trading environment overall we’re in an environment right now where realized volatility in the S&P has been extremely extremely low if you look at this spy chart we have been in the and this is exactly what we called for the reasons behind this are entirely related to market dynamics and I’ve spoken about them for for several weeks now we’ve been in this environment where the Spy has been in this upside grind where we can’t seem to get a close uh up or down by more than than half a percent but what what ends up happening is that compression of realized ball on the S&P has created a lot of dispersion in individual equities and to some degree in other indexes with the NASDAQ and the the Russell so with the spies doing nothing if let’s say Nvidia decides to be at 3% today that means that whatever that waiting is and that effect that it has on the S&P and Nvidia being such a big company if it’s just up 3% you have to have all these other companies that are going to be negative on the day so that the S&P can still be pretty much flat while Nvidia creates that move so the spies have been doing nothing but there’s just been a tremendous tremendous amount of action under the surface which has created just a lot of overall trading opportunity and some of these stocks are getting crazy um the the the parabolic nature of some of the moves that we’re starting to see in these stocks are crazy paler already has been extremely extremely strong it’s been trading upward on this like 45 degree angle which which by the way that’s exactly a stock that you typically would not want to be shorting is is anything that’s in like a 45 degree angle uptrend just riding up on on on the adma as this is is exactly what you don’t want to short you want to wait for that that Trend to break down or that Trend to actually break out and it’s interesting to think about an uptrend breaking out an uptrend it’s already uptrending and then it breaks out it breaks up that’s actually what creates parabolic moves so you get you could you know draw like your a ending channel line here basically in paler and then all of a sudden really starting on December 3D but confirming it on December 5th this thing actually began to break out of its channel to the upside and then on Thursday and and and Friday we had two really big updats in a row where you can just see this thing is getting actually more extended those same measures that I’m using versus the 821 EMA it’s it’s getting more extended than it had been at any other time in this upside grind and then today similar but different at Tesla we also had a really big day three Gap up in paler paler gapped up like seven eight% on there was some news out out there this morning but I don’t think that any of that news was was not already expected they got a a renewal of a of a government contract and they were also recirculating some news that came out on Friday the only thing that was really new on paler this morning was that Elon Musk made a tweet about about paler so you get this huge gap up and at this point the stock is is becoming climactic it could have had another update today it it it could have gone from you know $82 was trading premarket had another big upday on even increasing volume further up to $87 and then gave you a day four Gap up into the low 90s and that would have been like a massively climactic move but you’re starting to get to the point where you have this 45 degree uh ascending Trend that is breaking to the upside that can’t last so I said in the morning meeting to my team today I was like not 100% sure if it’s today or if it get another really big day and then it becomes tomorrow but we are at the point here where this pounder is really becoming climactic and we can look for the move so pre-market there was an important resistance level at 82 there’s an important support zone between 80 and 8050 I said to the team I was like if this thing gets above 82 watch out because they might explode this thing higher it might get another $5 of upside from there but if it really gets below and holds below that 808050 then we might actually start to get the waterfall effect to the downside similar but different trade to Tesla so now we have this move back down and I’ll tell you what else is similar but different to is this mstr move that was I I I still think was the the short of the year was my short of the Year this big day four to the upside huge huge gap up on that day massive amount of extension that brought it down so now paler has pretty much retraced down to the adma on The Daily which it’s held like the boss this entire way up but this is the first time that it’s having a very high volume and and we still have to see where it closes we’re still a few hours away from the market close but if we close week today it’ll be a high volume negative marabu red marabu Candlestick into the adma that is similar to this mstr in some way where I would I would expect that off that in the same way that this mstr went down to the adma red for a couple days and then broke lower I would expect a similar pattern with paler where if it closes week maybe it tries to rest in here for another day or two but that probably finally sets up the the bigger deeper correction so you know for for myself I was I was uh a shorting paler just very very heavily uh in front of $82 starting at like 5: am this morning and and was able to do very very well with it today so certainly endured some pain on this on the way up in in doing in in hindsight I am not a perfect Trader I think everyone knows that and I’m I love to admit my flaws because I can learn from them and everyone else can learn from them as well but um there are some things I I I was where I was probably a little bit stubborn on the way up like like no doubt about it um but overall I think I’ve traded it well and now I finally really really caught it today where it it’s coming together that that combined with um I think everyone knows I’ve been a huge Bull on these Chinese stocks and we finally got the news this morning that these Chinese names are up huge so I have I have a very big position in Al Baba I took some of that off I had called out I think with you that I was looking for a move in this yinn back to 35 when I was trading this at 27 it got above 35 today so I fully liquidated that position uh JD have been looking for a move back to above 42 got to back above 42 today so um I’m I’m almost of that position but Boba is the one that I still have a lot of uh I’m looking for a move in that’s Al Baba back to above $100 but the the Chinese names paid me very very well this morning and actually helped to give me some peace of mind when I was uh shorting paler heavily this morning as well so that’s what’s going on all right uh a question we got from YouTube K cat trading wants to know if you have any thoughts on Netflix it’s been in the two-year ascending Channel and now is breaking out how to inter an options trade on such a strong move up um if I was looking at Netflix this morning which I wasn’t I would have I would have preferred to to short it than to buy it I would start by saying that I just I don’t I was just talking about this I don’t like chasing extension so there was a great short back here that I called out but didn’t participate in where it had this also like four day up move then you had what what made it a little bit tricky from an execution perspective was this inside day before it broke down I wanted like one more break higher and then back through the previous days low and I would have shorted it just for this move back to the adma again view that as your equilibrium 0 EMA the upper band of technical equilibrium 21 EMA lower band of of technical equilibrium uh so then after snapping back to the adma you’ve had this grind up but this is almost similar in some ways to what we were just talking about with paler this 45 degree angle grind up you don’t you don’t want to be shorting that you can and you can even buy it but just be a little bit careful when have a lot of extension down to 21 but uh that’s something you can buy then this also started to break up a little bit and like you have like an Amazon also like really and it’s still going today really starting to break up I don’t have a short position in Amazon right now but I’m actually starting to eye it because it’s getting a little bit silly so I just don’t I don’t like to chase things when they get far away from the moving average now at the time in which you’re asking this question we have a week or day here where we pulled back to the to the adma on The Daily so the question is if you’re trying to get involved in this is is what sort of continuation can we get and if you’re looking for that continuation where is it best to execute for me personally after today’s candle I probably would wait a little while for this thing to reset up the issue is that this Market is just so so bullish still uh I know we’re having a little bit of a down day today but there’s just so much underlying demand in this market still for the short run so I think if you’re looking at getting involved in Netflix on a bigger picture trade you want to wait for a little bit better of a of a technical pattern to build out some sort of bull flag or technical setup to come in but this 21 EMA catch up a little bit more but you also really need to be asking yourself what your thought process is for the market for the Market’s continuation because you do need this Market I think to continue higher in order for the Netflix of the world to continue higher as well and for myself I am certainly still a bull but I’m becoming a I’m finally starting to become just a little bit more cautious of a bull again after just being like super gung-ho to the Longs side and shouting out from the rooftops that everybody should be buying anything that they could get their hands on for the last several weeks I’m finally starting to get a little bit just a you don’t want to fight the flow the flow is there the flow is still bullish I I’m a big believer not fighting force flows in the market but at the same time it’s starting to hit the point here where it’s like everybody is bullish everybody is bullish everybody’s starting to get into the pool and I don’t think they’re fully in the pool yet but at at a certain point when I start to just see like every single person getting bullish after what’s been a pretty big move I just become a little bit cautious and the interesting thing about trading is like sometimes the most basic simplistic things that should happen are exactly what happens when everybody’s expecting something sometimes it happens everybody’s expecting it for a reason but other times it doesn’t so you know we’re just at this point right now where I’m I’m recognizing all this flow that’s there and this imp impacts whether Netflix continues I don’t want to fight it but I’m starting to get a little bit more just cautious on the amount of further long exposure I continue to put on as we get closer and closer to to the end of the year so hope that helps a little bit with the Netflix thought process yeah good stuff uh he said thank you patience is king So y sure good stuff uh another question from YouTube is what about Year End Tax selling sure so year in tax selling tax selling is definitely something to consider we know that overall this Market is really bullish and there’s a lot of force funds like I was just saying but you will have individual stocks that are have maybe been weak throughout the year and might be subject to tax L harvesting if you want to sell one of your winners and you want to help the amount of money that you’re going to send to the government and you’ve got a loser that’s out there then you probably want to sell some of that also but there’s not that many losers out there is the problem if you’re if you’re looking for pockets of of tax lost harvesting I mean I’m not sure what the percentage is anymore that the S&P and the NASDAQ is up on the year but it’s it’s been a phenomenal year and since the iwm finally broke up as well and overall breath improved in this market there’s not a lot that’s out there one spot that I was actually worried about was these Chinese names I’m like oh like anybody that’s these things from this like September October move they’re out of the money so maybe we see some tax loss harvesting in there so I was starting to think even though I’m in them I’m starting to think that maybe my idea was a little bit too early if I don’t get news from from the Chinese government because they might just stay weaker throughout the end of the year for for that exact reason for some tax lust harvesting and then of course we got the news that I was looking for which which broke these things up so that kind of takes that a little bit off the table but basically you want to ask yourself what’s been a dog this year that you could sell and probably just be a little bit cautious on buying that until we get through to the beginning of next year you know I know I know oil is uh have these XLE names are up small a little bit but but some of these XLE names have not traded well that this o oxy oxy here has not really traded well I’m sure there’s some people out of the money on that apache’s having a little bit of an update just because you know oil is up with the Middle East tensions reigniting with the Syria situation over the weekend um some of those names May maybe see a a little bit of tax lost Harvest harvesting coming in so I think that that’ll affect some individual stocks but overall it’s not enough to derail the strength that we’ve seen in this market this year yeah the uh the environment is not ripe for a lot of tax law selling to be a an impact for the for the market um speaking about the the Chinese government and stocks Nvidia down today because now China’s investigating them for an anti in anti- Monopoly investigation I think right right yeah something about that yeah Regulators in China uh I think that news is pretty meaningless to be you think that’s like a longterm news and it’s just like you know it’s hitting up the stock of the day and maybe setting things up for for a buy opportunity it’s it it’s just positioning the the biggest issue right now with with Nvidia is that the US government is not allowing them to sell some of their top products to China that’s that’s the biggest issue that that’s what China needs more than anything I’m sure if I’m sure if the Chinese government could reach an agreement with the US government that says hey uh you know we won’t investigate you for for being a monopoly or whatever if you give us some of your best chips that’s that’s a deal that China will take all day um yeah I I I I I think it’s a non-event I think it’s just a headline I think it’s just it’s just positioning um you know political wrangling positioning between government as we have a new Administration that’s going to be stepping in soon right this is a good question um Ki out trading asked how you enter a single leg how do you enter a single leg option the Tesla short today would you enter a put while the price is on the rise of a hint of lack of momentum or would you wait a bit more for the actual turn so I can I can answer that question while telling you at the same time that I don’t really trade a ton of options so I’m primarily an equity Trad I was shorting stock I wasn’t buying puts I was shorting stock I I I am a professional prop Trader it’s very different than being a retail Trader um most people I know who are trading options I’m you know I want to retract that statement I’m not going to say most people I know but a lot of people that I know or that I speak to who trade options in a retail account their primary reason why they trade options is because of the natural leverage leverage that’s inherent in the options contract so instead of you know having to buy or sell buy or short sell a $400 stock that’s going to eat up a ton of your you know cash capital or or even if you’re on a margin account you get you know 2x overnight and 4x intraday plus a whole ton of haircuts that come from your your clearing firm it’s it’s just a really expensive stock so for a person in a retail account it makes more sense to buy a put than than buy the stock itself for for myself I I I would rather buy or short the stock because I don’t want to deal with data Decay I don’t want to deal with the time Decay on on the options position I’m a professional prop Trader the T3 who I trade for gives me all the Capital Access I could ever want so um you know most the time and you know if anybody who’s a listener is interested in learning more about prop most of the time for like a new Equity or Equity options Trader with T3 we would start by giving you buying power at 20 times the amount of capital that you fund your account with for day trading and eight times the amount of capital for an overnight position so if you put $100,000 just using a random number into a prop account with T3 would give you $2 million in buying power to trade with intraday and $800,000 in terms of of of of overnight Capital usage so why why would I buy a put and deal with Decay when I could just short the stock out right so I I do very little options trading in so far as just straight up buying and selling of um of of options contracts I I don’t do a ton of just buying puts and buying calls um what I tend to do on the option side is the area that I am most profitable in on options and it’s the area that makes most sense for me is just selling puts um I just I just sell puts if I think that there’s going to be a floor a support level I just sell out of the money puts below that and I collect the premium if I’m right and I try to make it so that I’m doing it in stocks where I’m also willing to take the stock if I’m I’m wrong on the trade and it trades through the support level or or or the level where my contract was um stried at I I’ll just I’ll just take the stock so so again that answers the question I I don’t I don’t really trade options directly for that but really the question was about entering the position so whether you were buying puts or whether you were shorting the equity out right it’s the same thing so it’s a it’s just a technical trade here so the the stock puts in a a lower high on the 955 bar it begins to retrace a little bit the question here on the 10 a.m bar is is this a lower high that leads to a lower low that breaks this low or is this just time correcting a little bit more the adma on the five catches up further you get another little or low so then it’s becoming more like a wedge pattern a bull wedge pattern that bull wedge pattern then breaks to the upside and you get above $400 that’s the question that you’re asking yourself how do you know if you’re right or wrong because that’s how you manage risk you know you’re wrong if this High breaks if this High breaks it’s breaking you get you got another higher low and then the last lower high of the wedge is breaking to the upside and you’re getting above $400 you’re getting above that last pivot your idea is wrong then you can could stop yourself out and reassess the trade so I’m putting this trade on betting that the bull wedge that’s building out on the five minute fails why am I doing that because of the daily chart extension that we already described so technically this is a bullish pattern but a bullish pattern has a much lower probability of success within the confines of daily chart upside extension that’s the important of of of time frames so for me the trade is very simple I’m executing it on on the 10 a.m. bar versus the high of the last bar because if that last bar breaks I know my idea is wrong and I know that I’m right I’m I’m I’m booking some profit even before this pivot low just to get my risk covered and things like that but I really know that I’m right if a new low comes if a new low comes in I’m looking for at least a gap fill on this trade if not like I said a full retracement of the three to four pm move that that occurred in the stock so I I hope that helps our listener yeah he said understood that here thanks so awesome good stuff you know I was going to ask you about some other things but I think we’ve got a really good talk about all of this so other stuff whatever awesome we have CPI like Wednesday but like does the market really care CPI in December the market will still care because it’s it’s in front of um it’s in front of a Fed meeting it’s in front of the FED but I would say that the CPI has a has a lesser importance than you know the ones we were seeing in 2022 2023 as an example so there’s declining importance on on the on the CPI because the FED is basically all but declared Victory on inflation at this point as long as we don’t really start seeing it you know kind of re-escalated um I’m pretty confident that we’re going to get this fed cut almost no matter what tomorrow unless uh no matter what the CPI unless uh something really extreme happens yep I would agree too all right so for everyone who’s with us oh you can go to T3 live.com doive to get derk’s free ebook um as he mentioned is a professional prop Trader with T3 Trading Group uh and this ebook is focused on the benefits of that and uh what it takes to become a prop Trader and why you would want to do that for yourself so again you go to T3 live.com doive to get Derek’s free ebook Derek have a great rest of your trading day he is a real Trader so I gotta let him get back to it uh and I’ll talk to you in a week thanks Greta have a great day we DK all right bye e