2024-12-18

Scott Redler’s #630club – LIVE Stock Market Analysis

In the ever-evolving landscape of the stock market, staying informed with real-time analysis and insights is key to navigating volatility and capitalizing on investment opportunities. Scott Redler, the Chief Strategic Officer of T3 Live, provides a comprehensive stock market analysis in his #630club live broadcast. This session, recorded on a pivotal Fed day on December 18th, elucidates the current market dynamics and investment strategies amidst economic indicators and trading subtleties.

Understanding Market Movements and Strategic Trades

Subheading: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Decisions

During this session, Redler dives into the complexities of how Federal Reserve decisions influence market behaviors. He discusses the current state where despite a significant bull run in major indices like the S&P 500, which is up 28%, and individual stocks like Tesla reaching historic highs, there still exists a pervasive sentiment of doom and gloom due to a continued downturn in the Dow. These insights are critical in understanding the disconnection between market sectors and how federal actions, like interest rate cuts, impact them.

Subheading: Sector Analysis and Opportunistic Trading

Scott moves beyond broad market indices to discuss specific sectors and stocks, providing a detailed analysis of their performance and strategies for engaging with them. For instance, he mentions the performance discrepancies between the iWM (small caps) and the major tech stocks, delving into why discerning these differences matters for traders looking for entry and exit points. His analysis includes tactical commentaries on buying calls in the Dow, highlighting potential for capitalizing on short-term inflections.

Subheading: Adjusting Portfolios in a Volatile Market

In the video, Redler highlights the importance of adaptability in trading strategies, particularly in volatile markets. He notes how even on a Fed day, strategic positions need to be managed with care, advising against complacency. His dialogue about portfolio adjustments, particularly around tech giants like Tesla and Apple, provides a template on how traders can hedge, buy dips, and sell premium to optimize their positions based on market movements.

Key Takeaways for Traders

Navigating Highs and Lows:
Redler’s discussion emphasizes not getting caught up in momentary spikes or drops but focusing on sustained trends and structural support levels in stocks. His approach to buying dips and selling rallies as part of a disciplined trading strategy shines through as a method to potentially increase gains while minimizing risks.

Risk Management and Sector Rotation:
Scott’s analysis of sectoral rotation and how it impacts stock performance is vital for traders looking to diversify or adjust their portfolios. He provides actionable insights into how movement from tech stocks to other sectors could offer new opportunities and underscores the importance of staying alert to these transitions.

Technicals Over Emotion:
Throughout the session, Redler stresses the importance of technical analysis in guiding trading decisions. By focusing on technical indicators and price actions rather than emotional responses to market news, traders can better position themselves to respond to market volatility.

Conclusion

Scott Redler’s #630club session offers a detailed narrative on the intricacies of stock market operation against the backdrop of economic indicators and Federal Reserve activities. For traders and investors, his insights serve as a crucial guide to understanding market dynamics and refining investment strategies accordingly. Whether it’s a strategic disposition towards major indices, sector-specific analysis, or individual stock assessments, Redler’s expertise helps demystify complex market movements and equips traders with knowledge to make informed decisions.

Watch this video below for more info:

Scott Redler’s #630club – LIVE Stock Market Analysis



2024-12-18 11:58:18
Visit https://www.t3live.com/scottebook to get Scott’s eBook today.

Scott Redler previews the market action with full analysis of #SPX #QQQ #Nvidia #Apple, #Tesla and more!

Video transcript:
[Music] all right good morning my dogs oh that’s a spies let’s go to Red Dog for a second here good morning guys it is 6:32 is December 18th it is fed day it is hump day it is the last fed day of December and some people like Red Dog why the hell they cut in a quarter the S&P is up 28% mag s’s making moves Tesla’s at almost historic actually at historic highs bitcoin’s over 100,000 everyone’s making money and um the news is reporting on nine days down in the Dow the biggest losing streets since 1970 I’m like like I like really I’m like that’s what the Doom and Gloom is here I’m like the S&S 28% Apple just made a new move High you know Tesla hit what 483 and they’re talking about how the Dow has been down for nine days but anyway uh so the question is not whether they cut um it’s like how hawkish is he gonna sound and if he sounds super duper hawkish makes sense you know things aren’t slowing down I don’t I don’t know one person out of work to be honest and I’m sure there are people I’m not trying to belittle you know a little bit of a Slowdown but housing prices is still high gas is still hanging at three bucks I think everyone’s getting a little little spoiled here so don’t be spoiled don’t be caught with your you know your pants down and just continue to make your moves you know there are lots of ways to thread needles in this market as far as sector to sector uh pattern to pattern setup to setup and uh you don’t want to chase things when it gets the loudest you want to take profits and then move on and see how the money’s flowing anyway did I say my name my name is Scott rler I am the chief strategic officer of T3 live and this is uh now 6:34 um and hopefully everyone’s feeling good you know heading into the holidays season make sure to remember the gifts don’t get last minute gifts be a little thoughtful anyway so here we are heading into um the fed this is your upper Channel remember yesterday I’m like are we going to hold 60280 we going to hold 602 can you buy weakness can you continue to trade around your positions and there are a lot of ways to do so so with that being said now the spies are up a buck 60 we’re smacking the middle of the range and you know I love it when we’re in a big range like this because you know when you’re in a Range like this you’re not getting know pressure either which way where everything has to go up and everything goes down you’re able to follow and find the relative strength and the relative weakness and go with it you know so with that being said a lot of people kind of complaining about what’s going on red dog’s not complaining I I rarely complain I try and take accountability you know usually when you’re complaining you’re doing something wrong so if you were to blame yourself and say hey maybe this is my fault maybe I shouldn’t be buying the energy names too early maybe I shouldn’t be listening to everyone about the January effects so early maybe I should just be with the leaders and continue to go with what’s working but anyway with that being said we’re at 60594 so now we’re back above the midline so we’ll see what happens today uh typically you know they usually I think you know they you know you could probably sell a little bit if you bought some stuff yesterday and then we’ll see where we are closer to 2 o’clock and then 2:30 is the press conference which is really important so a lot of people are talking about how bad the iwm is I get it um I’m not in the iwm yeah I guess you could lower this and say Hey you know is uh did they discount the iwm enough into the FED with um with a hawkish dance because if I guess if they don’t sound as hawkish as they probably could maybe the iwm gets a bounce but you know again I don’t think it’s going to be such a crazy balce if anything this is 236 um uh I I you know I’m not we’re below the a21 they were hanging by a threat on the 50 days so so we’ll see if you caught just in the small caps because everybody’s talking about the you know the broadening out and this and that this is not the broadening trade this is the right now we’re we’re in the mag s Mega cap trade that maybe could change but anyway so that’s 230 you know a lot of talk about the Dow okay and how it’s come back to the 50 days so I bought some Dow calls yesterday I said you know what let me buy the calls for 1227 if there is a rotation where all of a sudden they do sell some Mega cap Tech some not all not you know I’m just saying well why not you know try and trade this I I I don’t I don’t really ever really trade the D but um you know we’re on this big trend line and chances are um you know I don’t think until the end of the year they’re just gonna crush this thing but if they do they do so uh I bought some options which options did I buy I’m not exactly sure let me take a look here hold on this is 434 you know the high on the on the diamonds which i’ never trade but I’m buying a dip here because that’s what I do I try and find some opportunities and if I’m not taking pain you know you could position into reflection you know inflection points and where it could it go this would be kind of like a just a broken balance just up to 440 you know so um with that being said I’m not doing it for this Friday um I’m doing it for next Friday 12:27 is is the date that I’m going to key on um if we’re going to Rally into the end of the year I would think it’d be not this Friday the following Friday because you’re in Christmas week you’re also not at three-day settlement sometimes they sell winners the last day or so of the year because standing in settlement then they could pay taxes the following year so the strong stocks you know get a little profit taking so anyway we’ll see at this point though probably not a bad spot what did I buy bought the diamond ddia 439 for pretty cheap so we’ll see we’ll see what happens here um but ultimately if you if you use my uh methodology on you get out of the way when you break the eight day moving average you know if you were playing this indic see which I don’t know anyone who really does you know this was you’re out so learn from it learn that that active Trend which is what I where I live you know changed right there um anyway so so that’s what that’s what that looks like but then what’s working is obviously a lot of Mag s you know I talked to you guys the other day about buying the dip in apple I bought the diping Apple again it worked out really well right we had a nice little bull flag right here if you look at it bull flag above the E day this has been an unbelievable Trend we took out 230 237 here you go Apple hit a high of 250 381 it’s Chase redler biggest position by the way I made some adjustments yesterday in in his portfolio earmarked I think the virtual trading for the Alpha Team are like you know could you make a model portfolio with Chase redler uh you know um what’s it called Robin Hood account I might do that because some of you guys don’t trade for living you’re just like we want to you know have a bunch of different that’s why I try and do a power play power play is a product that we use that’s really cheap it’s like $99 for the year where I tell you what to do I give parameters and then we help piece you out so this way you’re not looking through my Red Dog note that has 40 things on there and picking out what you want or trading like hey just tell me what to do I kind of like you I trust you and you have your best our all of our best interests at heart which is what I do doesn’t mean I’m always going to be right but at least I’m giving you the high probability of getting in there you know so anyway Apple was really good I kind of think Amazon’s gonna have another move very soon you know I I bought some options into the dip Amazon’s been fantastic you know it’s it it traded Above This 202 which was is one of the inflection points after the retest you know and now it’s going SS I think at some point just takes out 233 and ends a lot higher into the end of the year so that’s pretty good meta is not so bad overall it’s very loose and wide you know but again we talk about trade management and the Money Trade well meta you know gave us that money trade right here these two-day trades is where I make a living or I try to where something gets ready you see the relative strength you have a price point on the daily chart is an action area it goes through you make your money you sell some you’re done with it and then you manage it and uh so far you know so far this isn’t you know this is consolidating I would think at some point this takes out now 638 and continues where I’ve been making a lot of money you know which has been the hyper Focus has been Tesla and everybody knows it you know even even uh Liz Clayman was like oh my God you know what what the hell you still doing on TV you should be you know out in freaking Turks and caos counting your money you’ve been so accurate with Tesla I’m like what fun is that no I’m kidding she’s actually going on a nice vacation there so I wish her the best she’s leaving soon um but this has been great you know so many different ways to play so many different ways to make money um starting from pre-election postelection um this was your last real money setup at 348 it took out this 362 area you know and then um you know yesterday was the first day I became really cute I’ve always been cute no I’m kidding uh what does that mean it means that I’ve been long Tesla and I bought the reverse ETF and I sold sold premium I actually sold premium the day before into the close to take advantage of the stretch n nature of this range so instead of just getting out of Tesla I’m like how do I how do I stay in it and make money and then let it go so you know if you look at the Alpha Team what I did yesterday is I bought some TSL Q calls I bought some TSL Q itself and I sold the 510s and the 530 so I’m very happy coming in with Tesla down um you know 12 because what could I do I could trim which you could already see here on the Ala team if you’re part of the Ala team already trimmed a little bit it says sell sell some of the TSL Q’s make money keep some I’ll have some options that might make me money and they’ll suck out the premium here and I get to keep you know Tesla and buy a dip and let it consolidate because there are some times when Tesla’s not just making higher highs it’s got to rest a little bit so even if it just rests here now which would be great let it rest rest might be rest my idea you know hang out let the8 day catch up then you can make money while at rest and then you see what else is going on yesterday Red Dog bought a dip into video yes I did okay even though it’s broken I did it here too if you remember into this I was buying like the 140 somethings well yesterday okay if you’re a member of the Alpha Team okay I I pieced into Nvidia calls because of the 100 day not because it’s just Nidia because you know I had a calculated way so what I buy in Nvidia I bought the 1227 as I said I’m focusing on 1227 four options and I bought the the 132s so anyway the 132s I’ll probably sell half I bought them at you know as low as two and a quarter yesterday and where could It Go um you know I don’t think this is GNA be the Nvidia of old but Nvidia why can’t it get into these moving averages right around here this would be you know a decent resistance area you know to to probably trim into Nvidia I looked before is up a decent out nvda it’s up 350 134 where’s 134 uh not quite here so I would say this nid will probably be a better buy from 135 to 137 than um you know not a better buy I’m sorry better trim a better sell a better take profits than a better ad so don’t get over excited there um you know what I’ve been a little rude I didn’t even say load any of my dogs around the world got all su’s like Nvidia by the way remember on the opp so yes I had Chase sell half his Tesla and he bought Nvidia yesterday Tesla 500 Topp or higher I don’t know well let let it hang out let Tesla digest a little bit R klb um that’s been a pretty hot stock right with the the whole um what’s it called you know drone sector whatever you want to call it um hey Scott yeah s so s so had a freaking crazy move Mario I would not be buying it now what a move we were you know you want to buy these things when it’s in the base and then you have trade management and yesterday was one of those trade management days where you’ll see if it builds a bull flag above this um it’s already had a huge move like this is when I was hyperfocused on it I was you know 612 and then again right here look how it followed the 8 day all the way up until it got extended so whenever something’s extended you want to trim a little bit extraterrestrial news coming where yeah everyone has drones in their in their backyard if if you get taken away and you go to a foreign Planet don’t drink the water no I’m kidding I don’t know just hopefully you’ll be safe Bitcoin um I did trim some I already bought a little bit back this morning ibit probably needs a little rest Above This 5940 bitcoin’s been absolutely fantastic I tell you the miners have been kind of annoying you know I I did sell a lot of my mstx we talked about that the other day when it was up a lot because they got added to the NASDAQ 100 and every time it’s been up it’s been a sell so anyway I would be buying a dip in in ibit into this I already bought a little bit of morning and you could see that too so you know managing the approach so ibit which I’m Long hey I bought a little bit more this morning at 626 and then I sold some Tesla Q at 626 so that’s what we do we manage the portfolio approach not everyone can have a man portfolio approach I have Connor sitting next to me Conor Conrad Conor did everyone call you Conor back in the day you know who’s he’s only been trading for a little while who doesn’t take overnights he needs to make cash flow every single day with setups that’s different you know I’ve been doing this for 30 years so I get to manage my my four accounts so anyway you can you could still do that without having overnights by by using levels and trading verse spots and you know I would be a buyer of uh ibit on the dip here you know I did sell my mister yesterday into strength not yesterday two days ago right here and then look what happened yesterday so this morning I bet you mis’s down a little bit you know maybe you could buy it oh it’s not even down a little bit these things are trading a little weird you know you have I you have big coin down okay and you have Mr up a dollar but again all it is is in here you know High lower high lower high this is getting a little temperamental here you know so hopefully I I do not want this H it’s kind of broke this little spot it’s below the eight day it’s been holding the 21 Day if this doesn’t hold the 21 Day listen I’m a I’m a seller fan too you know and I’m a crypto fan but I’m a technical fan more I trust the technicals I remember when smci not this is smci don’t get me wrong don’t I know a lot of you crypto Fanatics out there I’m not a fanatic I just like to go where the money is I remember this had that huge move that got parabolic and then all of a sudden it kept getting sold into strength and everyone’s like why is it getting sold into strength why is it getting sold into strength and then you know a little bit later come uh come in July everyone figured out why I got sold into strength and I’m not saying that’s gonna happen with mis I’m just saying you know just be careful be careful I’m always you know names like this this that have had extended crazy moves they can continue but when they change they change so it just means you need to change the speed of how you’re dealing with these things red dog likes to be a little careful with everybody anyway let’s see what else is what other people talking about here mister mister mister uh yeah uh Duncan had a had a red dog reversal dkng you know if you sold you know it was I was talking to some of these you know big guys that manage billions of dollars and it’s fun how they just have their narrative and they just keep buying it I’m like I’m like let’s do a little chart lesson here on why you shouldn’t have been in a rush here’s where Draft Kings you know got a little wishy-washy had a false breakout and then lost the eight day right there this is be careful the lost momentum so you don’t want to buy it as quickly and then look what happened you could have been out of the way pretty much from I’d say 43 is all the way down and then maybe re-entered here with your first signal so that was one little thing and then I’m like you know what DraftKings is one seor I’m like look at another sector because they everyone loves ccj which is uranium I’m like look what ccj did same kind of thing right ccj you know you had your you know this was this was a fine candle this was like Hey I’m going to trim into some strength it’s been great but then this candle that broke the A and engulfed this entire range said hey maybe I should take a step back and not buy this as fast it’s not making higher highs and higher lows I want to save myself some money so PS you know from 59 it went all the way down to you know the 100 day where maybe you have a little bottom tail here and this was a better entry so you could look for areas when stocks change and then you have to just readjust to different when it’s here when it’s you know awesome above the a the moving averages has a move you know holds the eight day continues here you know this is like a topping pattern and you just don’t want to buy it back too fast anyway that’s just my story with that um morning good tip on lunar thank you um lunar had a nice move a nice two-day move I was buying it with the the you know the 630 club and you know path to not path I we call path to profits power plays um at 1140 I did trim most and now we’ll see if it holds in there um I did buy some ests um this stock has been very annoying to be honest you know it had a big move to 39 this been consolidating for a long time you would think you know it can get going a little bit it’s in the right sector at the right time and it’s been consolidating so I would you know did buy a little bit of this yesterday this ISS this is you know the space mobile um spot it’s got some good deals people like this for next year so we’ll see um Quantum Computing has been great do you think volatility will always be higher the next four years due to I you know I don’t know if president like Trump seems a little bit more mature seems like he’s not as you know saying such outlandish thing so maybe there’ll be a little less volatility but he you know he’s always known to do those tweet bombs at 2:00 in the morning I told you that story from the macabi games I’m not going to tell you guys again but anyway so it’s fed day fed day is to me kind of are pain in the butt you know you usually have some false moves at two o’clock and then you have to wait for the press conference and then you have to interpret whether or not you know how hawkish is he what does it really mean is it priced in is it not so it’s one of those times where you know sometimes it’s hard to make money you know so if you had a great I was at the highs of my year yes if you had a good run just don’t put yourself out there and and don’t have a a full sense of security or some crazy opinions if you go back to the spies which is what I’ll leave you with you know at least we’re in a tight range here at least you have points of reference so you know if all of a sudden he sounds way too hawkish you know and and rates pop you know and and when you start breaking this little spot you know you’ll know that it’s time to you know take some some more risk down right if all of a sudden you know they they cut a quarter and and it sounds like it’s noted dependent and that there on you know bah blah blah blah blah and and he tries to massage the situation you know we’ve been in this range for a while now you know it’s been since uh December 4th it’s December 18th so you know don’t just don’t just fade things because sometimes it happens plus remember that at 3:15 to 4 there’s a move and then sometimes there’s a reversal of the move the next day so that sounds like a lot of like back and forth so make sure to take trades have your levels defin in front of you know what you’re committed to in times like this um oxy oxy is a pain in the butt Mario why do you got to bring it up you want to bring up my dead squirrel from when I was in high school I’m kidding anyway I’ve been buying oxy a little bit on the dip you know it’s one of my January effect plays um I think I have enough time I have till October SE I till till January 17th I bought some of this hey look at that a little bottom tail you know but it’s gonna have to go quite some way for me to make money in this same thing with the c funny thing is I’m not going to beat anybody up on on Twitter but like this is one another one of my January effect trades that I have for Jan you know I love when somebody comes out and says I’m buying this for the January effect and then they’re kind of wrong they’re kind of early like I want it to go lower like do you really want it to go lower because it kind of sucking some wind out of my p&l right now yes do I want to buy more too do did I buy tier three of this thinking it was going to get above 32 before January no because there’s a lot of people that have lost a lot of money that don’t care about this and yes I’m a fitness fanatic I have never had one of these drinks you know if I had a dollar for every person that said oh I’m buying the dip in this since the double top here and I a lot of dollars but if I bought it every time they said it I would have lost a lot of money but anyway um you know I am in this and I’m going to buy a little bit more but I’m going to be very cautious just because I don’t know if January 17th is gonna be enough time I might have to go out to February because again this has been so you know battered than Bru so again when you’re doing January effect names just know it’s 1218 sometimes they keep taking losses on it all the way to the last day of the of it so um so although sometimes they go faster like I did BlackBerry just so as a a January effect and you know didn’t think it was going to happen and go so fast so this one’s working prior to January so some work some don’t one gives you a p&l one takes it away but hopefully in in you know over time consistency they all work together in your opinion what’s the level to add Tesla you know I I I would think of you know this this this is yes’s law I think 457 like you know it could I don’t even know if it will get there but if it you know somewhere around you know hold hold yesterday’s low 4557 here’s the E day you know I i’ to be honest I’d rather just I’d rather this I want this 484 to be the high of the week I’d rather it just kind of hang in here reset up you know kind of even go sideways maybe like this it did here after a huge move but you know that that just means it’s a lot of range trading and I can’t it’s a little too early to tell it all depends on you know how uh how quickly this dip gets bought if Tesla goes green today not saying it will but it could you know chances are 484 might not be the high of the week but if it stays down 12:15 and shows some relative weakness chances are you know it’ll it’ll need a little bit of time which will be healthy it’ll make a better setup for later this week or next week all right guys I appreciate you thanks for tuning in you know happy fed day don’t do too much I actually might have to go to the city for a secret Santa with T3 so I might not even be at my desk for a Fed I’ll be trading from the New York City office which kind of sucks whenever you go to a new you know setup and you don’t have all your things and you know just take take it a little slower so if you’re if you’re trading the fed from the phone do it do it a little bit uh you know a little less size later guys