December 17, 2024

Scott Redler’s #630club – Comprehensive Analysis of Today’s Stock Market

In an insightful episode of Scott Redler’s #630club, the chief strategic officer of T3 Live delivered a substantial live analysis of the stock market on December 17, before the Federal Reserve’s decision, which is expected to dominate market sentiment. Redler, recognized for his punctuality and prior athletic discipline, began the session prompt at 6:30 AM, setting the tone for a detailed and energetic discussion on market dynamics, specific stock options, and strategic predictions.

Market Trends and Analysis

Scott Redler’s analysis kicked off with a reflection on the significance of market timing and precision. He paralleled his commitment to timeliness with his rigorous training experiences, emphasizing the importance of precision in both athletics and stock trading. Diving into market specifics, Redler discussed the challenges and dynamics leading up to the Fed’s announcement, expected the following day. His clean-shaven appearance was in preparation for a significant meeting in the city, underscoring the significance of personal presentation in professional settings.

Trading Dynamics Pre-Fed Decision

Redler described the general trading atmosphere as cautious, with markets slightly pressurized a day before the Fed’s potential policy changes. This scenario typically stems from traders’ reluctance to make significant moves right before crucial economic updates, which can swing the market considerably depending on the Fed’s tone and decisions.

Narrow Market Leadership

In his analysis, Scott Redler pointed out the ‘narrow leadership’ in the market, indicating that only a select group of stocks ("the mag seven") have been performing robustly, while broader market indicators like market breadth have shown weakness. He detailed how important segments like tech giants and innovators have buoyed the market while other sections lagged.

Technical Insights and Trading Strategies

Redler shared detailed technical analysis, focusing on SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) charts to illustrate the market’s consolidation phase above crucial moving averages. Despite a minor downtrend in early trading sessions, he highlighted the resilience shown by maintaining levels above key technical benchmarks like the 8-day and 21-day moving averages. His narrative proceeded with real-time trading insights, particularly on Tesla and Bitcoin, revealing real-life trading decisions and strategy adjustments.

Investment Strategies and Risk Management

Scott Redler elaborated on investment strategies, particularly emphasizing the tier system in trading, which he explained using personal anecdotal evidence involving his own trading decisions and advice given to younger traders. He discussed managing positions in high-performing stocks like Tesla — suggesting trimming positions on strength — and explored option selling as a risk management tool.

Real-Time Stock Movements

The narrative was rich with references to current stock movements, with specific mentions of Tesla’s impressive run and its strategic selling points. He shared his method of selling premium options during strong rallies as a means to capitalize on predictably temporary pulls in highly voltaic stocks.

Community Engagement and Educational Insights

Throughout his session, Redler engaged with his global audience, addressing questions and providing clarifications on strategies, like the tier system of trading and specific stock updates. He fostered a communal trading atmosphere, creating an interactive platform for investors and traders to exchange ideas and strategies.

Conclusion: A Trader’s Perspective Pre-Fed Decision

Scott Redler’s session on the #630club provided a thorough breakdown of current market conditions and strategies ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement. His discourse spanned technical analysis, personal trading anecdotes, and risk management strategies, offering both novice and experienced traders valuable insights into navigating the complexities of stock trading in uncertain times.

This detailed analysis not only predicts possible short-term market movements but also provides a blueprint for traders looking to enhance their trading methodology in response to economic indicators and market sentiment. Redler’s session underscores the importance of readiness, strategic planning, and continuous learning in the ever-evolving landscape of the stock market.

Watch this video below for more info:

Scott Redler’s #630club – LIVE Stock Market Analysis



2024-12-17 11:56:42
Visit https://www.t3live.com/scottebook to get Scott’s eBook today.

Scott Redler previews the market action with full analysis of #SPX #QQQ #Nvidia #Apple, #Tesla and more!

Video transcript:
[Music] hey good morning good morning it is 6:30 holy cow red dog is on time I really feel bad about myself sometimes because I always pride myself on being on time just there’s so much that goes on in the morning that sometimes I get on at 631 632 I tell you guys a story all the time how like uh you know I used to you I train for two Iron Man and back in the day you’d be meeting guys on the bike at like 4:30 in the morning to go out for 100 miles and if you were there at 4:32 these guys are send in spandex on that bike freezing the you know what’s off so I get it nobody wants to sit around anyway uh my name is Scott rler I’m the chief strategic officer of T3 live this is the 6:30 Club it is December 17th it is what’s say Tuesday the day before the fed you see I’m nice clean shaving because red dogs got to go to the city and meet my friend Liz Clayman maybe I’ll even see Charlie today and do a little segment last time I was on or two times ago I was on pre-election you know they were like where is the election going to go on no president for three four five six seven days I’m like no my gu say Trump’s gonna win with the landslide what do you buy I’m like Tesla and Bitcoin they’re like what about djt I’m like H you know I don’t know that one or or it doesn’t make any sense but anyway with that said what a move right holy cow let’s get to um let’s oh we don’t have any charts here we can’t how do we have a you know can’t s a SAA without any charts s so um so here you go I’m learning how how to get around this so basically you know here we are um there’s a little talk right there’s like a tug of-war like if I was doing a meme I’d be a tug of-war you have you know the mag seven has been fantastic you have mega cap that’s been fantastic you have Bitcoin that’s been fantastic and it’s been a narrow group of these names that have been carrying the tape whereas in the last you know four weeks or so you’ve had bad ad lines you had dimin I can’t I can’t say the word breath like b r e a d t h right could you say it breath see like I could say breath like you know breathe but like the the ad lines the breath of the the of the market hasn’t been great so like who’s going to win Red Dog or all of a sudden the mag seven names going to Peak and pull in and then we’re g to roll over because Nidia is weak and and you know there’s not a lot of names that are moving like the ones that we’re focusing on well the beauty about being a Trader is you don’t have to be in all 500 of the S&P you could be in six of them four of them two of them one of them or 10 of them all depending on on your skill set and at this point if you look here at the chart of uh the spies all we have here is is a is a nice upper channel right consolidating above the8 day digesting above the 21 Day look at this active sequence it’s been awesome um this morning the spies are down a little bit I always feel like the day before the FED markets are a little a little under pressure because it’s kind of uh what’s the word um it would be disrespectful to to to gun the market in front of the the fed and and think that you want you know Powell and his crew to be a little less um hawkish because now the word is they’re gonna cut a quarter and they’re gonna be hawkish because of you know the econom is not doing as bad as everybody says but anyway so what’s this slow this is 60521 spies right now are only down a buck 40 so it’s right there it could even go a little bit below it and come back and then this is your upper range and within that range obviously all stocks aren’t created equal like I said before I was on Fox actually twice in the election and my focus was tesler holy cow look at the size of this move okay uh and it’s been so awesome the reason why it’s been so awesome is because you’ve had various setups along the way where you could have refreshed your share side refreshed the type of approach to it um this was your first move to 358 then you remember you know they sold some excitement here rebuilt gave you a pushup and then this was really your last setup where you had 348 where a lot of us were buying verse and then you could have added when it took out this 361 and then remember I’m like if we get through 360 370 it’s going to be like a magnet to 384 to 414 you know and then you go real quickly to the weekly chart how do we come up with that area because this was your point of reference from 2021 and now to be quite honest it’s getting getting a little bit a little bit frothy if you were not long Tesla TSLA Elon mus company that have been doing really well for us for today’s not your day to buy it even if like like Red Dog you say it can go to 550 600 next year I understand that you know and it can now because somebody’s like red dog you got to give a new Target all your targets have been met you know I’m like well I think it can why why shouldn’t this be able to go to 550 to 600 next year but again you know for for someone who trades for a living like we do or most of us do I haven’t told Chase Chase got in this at at 605 he’s been in appla I won’t let him sell Apple he bought that during the pandemic we remember we’re in the car I’m like I want you to start using a tier system Chase because he bought Tesla right here in his Robin Hood account I’m like you I know today’s game day you have your game against cell opening season I’m like but this is what I want you to do I’m like I want you to sell a third of your Tesla this morning up whatever he’s going to be having his waffle soon and then we’re going to figure out how you could buy a back so you could use a tier system so you book some and buy a dip instead of just sitting because chances are you could just sit it’ll be a lot higher in a year from now but I want them to learn how to you know how to use a tier system like all of us use but anyway so I would be trimming a little bit of Tesla into this move that’s what I’m going to do you know um I have uh you know somebody’s like Red Dog you you sold premium for the first time yesterday I’m like I did they sold a little premium which I’m not nervous about so I’m long Tesla overnight this is the Alpha Team this is where all of us hang out where we’ve been doing really well is lately and I did short some 510 calls meaning that at 510 on Friday if Tesla gets there I will be short that stock some people have been in a pain trade shorting the whole time it’s the first time I did that and I usually do this when I’m and usually when I do it it’s like a half a day away from some kind of short-term little top it just is like that 30 years I have that feel so what I’m going to try and do is thread the needle a little bit trim a little bit of Tesla into this I’m not going to sell 510 calls today it’s too close now I’m a little you know not so happy about that I’ll probably sell like the 535s or 540s for the same price I sold these and see how it goes but that’s just because I’m a professional Trader and I’ve done this for a while you know I did that the last time too here remember Tesla not Tesla it was mis okay everybody was getting a little nuts and it was going a little parabolic and Mister was above 504 and that’s when I gave you guys you know two or three of the reverse ETFs to play you like four or five dollar sold some premium and it was a little nerve-wracking but you know I I I did it here that’s where the E day was and W and then you didn’t even have to like think about it and like you have to think about in your head that’s what I do early in the morning which is going to be something we do together um rolling out in 2025 but I’m saying like that morning I’m like okay if this then that if that then this so you know remember Mis opened up fa to hold didn’t get above and stay above you could have shorted more there and then that happened and then cus it’s been they’ve been selling strength since like I even yesterday while I was talking about Mister you know I took Mr um stock mstx actually home long and I was long some calls and I had some put sold and yesterday they did it again they opened up and sold it down just the way it’s trading when it’s when it opens lower you buy it it goes green when you open up high it goes It goes from green to Red it is what it is anyway let me say hello to some of my dogs around the world let’s see who’s who’s tuning in um Mitch McGee asked me if I steal him in rum yes I am um you’re in CNN okay I haven’t looked that in a while what up Bobby 4.0 Bobby’s 4.0 already I’m Red Dog 2.0 2025 I think I’m gon to start Red Dog 3.0 which we’ll get to um future contracts rolled okay um oh you that’s a new name the mobile Trader okay you must be a Futures guy what up Diego how you doing we got its I’ve never seen you before Mister yeah they had to close it on the low’s to open it up six um Quantum Computing yes I’ve been in a bunch of those by the way this is uh everyone that I’m talking to right now I’m not like talking to myself some people like make sugar honey iced tea up and like oh make like they’re talking to all these people these are the dogs around the world who tune up tune in every day since 2020 we’ve been doing the 630 Club five to 7,000 views a day on the arm anyway hopefully it’s a been adding value and uh we we’ll see how where we go from here so with that said I iwm has been shaky so is the equal way um you know spy so if you want to talk about that for a second so the iwm has definitely been you know a grinder you know had a a beline move to 244 and then since then it’s been grinding down and now it held above the 50 that it’s it’s kind of tight I don’t think it’s a horrible setup a lot of people are thinking that the fed’s going to be hawkish you know and only do 50 basis points worth of cuts in 2025 which makes sense especially if we’re probably you know going to I would think we might you know stay strong and have a ramp up in the first half and then a decline that’s what Tom Lee says and I actually agree I usually agree with Tom Lee he’s just you know a little bit more bullish than I am at times and puts bigger numbers on things than I do I try and be a little bit more realistic but a lot of things he says work so this did hold so if you were looking to do something for the fed you could you could buy a call spread in the iwm and maybe you know uh we Peak a little bit in mag s and then some money comes back to the small caps perhaps look at the RSP the RSP is the equal weight um uh S&P which has been on the decline meaning that the ad lines have not been good it’s like flavors you know this was this was the first part of November was great and then it came in same thing with the small caps you know and first quarter was mag seven in the fourth quarter and then then in the middle was other sectors and that’s what we do as trades we try and find out where the action is um am I still in rum someone yeah why wouldn’t I be in rum I don’t really drink rum but I I think Rumble has been acting very very well um remember when I flagged all those call guys there’s hundreds of thousands of calls going off as if somebody read tomorrow’s newspaper today which is what you could see with volume in the market and PS a day later all of a sudden the CEO started to become stock friendly I guess everyone’s beating them up so anyway I I think this is going to be higher you know I’m I’m long a decent amount look at the weekly chart the weekly chart setting up a nice bull flag I’m long it uh if it gets above nine I would think it could be an 11 and a quarter you know I I’ll make you guys a pushup at that if if this is isn’t 11 in a quarter doesn’t touch 11 in the first quarter of next year we’ll come up with something whoever wants to bet me we’ll do a push-up competition or something maybe we do the Fathers Day push-up challenge again for for charity but anyway um I do think that this is acting better and we could see that spot so you know at this point do what you got to do um that was just a question from some of the dogs um yesterday there was some some good little like uh what’s the word um like the Spacey type stocks so you know I did buy back lunar so like Red Dog why you back in lunar I’m like well you know I played this from 880 I bought it through 985 I think I sold it into this day I was done with it I don’t stay for the some bigger parts of moves on names that I’m not that committed to just because I have so much going on and then it peaked at 17 came in and then yesterday had a little bit of a red dog reversal so I bought it back just something to do that was you know that that that sector’s been pretty good you know space is a you know a little cheesier name but um you know this stock has a nice little low base here and someone’s like why are you buying this I’m like because I don’t know just my little spidey sense went off that perhaps if uh musk is getting a huge valuation for his thing like I don’t even know how many billion like 350 billion you know this is uh the Virgin Guy and um it’s already been absolutely annihilated so maybe it’s worth a play so that’s why it’s not it’s not a focus I have those going on um I also have this little ACR from a few days ago looks like it could head towards you know uh 984 or more had a b move Consolidated but you know these are just some little things that I’ve been you know navigating besides the big names I did buy apple back you know I said I have to re-engage Apple um Apple uh gave you a nice little bull flag continuation um I you know I’ve been in apple a bunch of times this year my last really really big play was when it took out 230 and 237 listen there are setups and then there’s trade management setups for the Money Trade and trade management what did I just say setups I forgot no I’m kidding there’s setups there’s big money trades and trade management so this was you know one spot and then another spot and then then it turns into trade management so I end up holding the8 day took out you know 250 and to me I’m still long that same thing with Amazon you have setups and trade management the setup was right here once again when I took out this 202 and now it turns into trade management what do I mean by trade management it’s above the eight that you buy a dip you trade it through a price point you roll up options you do all the things you’re supposed to do to book money and stay with the trade okay so this is trade management um oh I got to go back down to here I don’t see a lot of people oh there we go aago strong again yeah so this so this is trade management okay um well meta has been trade management right what do I mean by that well here is your buy one here took out the channel and then it’s trade management as it’s been above the eight day moving average meaning buy dips play through price points so every now and then when you when you get that um TBA Which is my friend Dan zanger calls it the technical buy area where it’s the fight between the Longs and the shorts that’s where you want to have your size and that’s where you want it to then explode through then you want to let it go let it get to a Target take some off and then trade management trade management write that down Conrad that’s gonna be a good word for us anyway with that said um I have Conrad over here Conrad is gonna be working with me very closely moving forward we’re gonna develop a thing called Conrad Corner which is going to be for all the young Traders out there who are who aren’t doing this for 30 years you want to figure out a process and can’t take millions of dollars worth of risk but need to make a few hundred a day but anyway um what Intel’s Apple Johnny baah blah blah likely on Intel’s new CEO short list all right I don’t you know Intel I’m not gonna be with that anyway ibit yes um this has been fantastic some people like red dog you’re a little cheesy with your AI Tommy the turkey the Santa Claus the ball drop and I’m like you know what I like to have some fun also besides looking at red and green lines I figured why not get involved in in this here and we’ve been in it the whole way look at this sequence ah what’s that called trade management and we’ve been managing this pretty damn well and I’m still in it um so anyway um as we head into uh the FED tomorrow which typically could be volatile with the S&P up 28 29% and an ad line that’s not looking so great what do you want to do you do what you feel comfortable doing okay it’s December 17th I’m I thought yesterday went to the highs of my year and I and I had a little tough time in the end of August September so I’m feeling good and that means a lot of my my guys are feeling good and you know just pair things down the last thing you want is a leg sweep you know and this point if the setup keep H keeps happening just go with it but maybe you do a little less SI and you’re a little less scattered you be more focused on what’s happening I’m trying to you know give rid of plays and just take a little piece out of these moves with my trade management but I keep finding new things you know why because I have an alpha team with hundreds of traders that are looking for trades everyone has a different style so I’m like a Melting Pot into things that I absorb and go with which helps give them confidence too I would not be buying a Vago today I’m sorry you know you kind of missed it you know some guys had a option strategy going into it some guys said I’m G to buy versus Pro earnings Gap and some you know I’ve gotten paid so where’s aago right now avgo up another three I would be selling to this do not buy a vgo today here usually he’s not going to end well might you know I’m just saying that you missed it the right setup in the right time same way in blackjack you gotta wait for an 11 versus six to double down you might get lucky once or twice doubling down in a bad hand or going in in Texas hold them when you probably shouldn’t but over time it’s not going to work out well so anyway I would be careful buying that somebody’s like how red dog how could you have any Longs on with the way Nvidia is acting like well Nvidia hasn’t been the key to the market lately Nidia has been broken or you know different ever since the Red Dog reversal post earnings and that was right here okay Nvidia you know on this day you know you had a red dog reversal didn’t break above the area actually traded through and sold off then you had a a viable range trade and now it looks like it’s trading through the range and now look at how no it’s in no man’s land you know Nvidia is in no man’s land but guess what it hasn’t really mattered much because there’s been other you know there’s been other flows going to other places so just don’t short the spies because you know Nvidia is out of play just don’t short a Vaga or Tesla because Nvidia is below the 821 day just the way it is money rotates things move new leaders happen and that’s that you know that’s why we get up early and that’s why we prepare and that’s why we have a bunch of different names on our go-to list and Nvidia has been in the B minus list for the last week or two and Tesla’s been in the a list um you know bitcoin’s been on the A-list Apple’s been on the A-list Amazon’s been on the A-list um Google but I I miss Google some guys like Red Dog you’re losing your touch you haven’t played Google in a while I’m like okay you know but I’ll do the chart every day for you sometimes I am here for you last time I had a really good setup here was right when I took back the moving averages look great and then all of a sudden boom and then if you would have used a pro Gap pivot play board verse here didn’t matter if I was in it or not you could have been in it because you’re one of my dogs and I put a chart out every day of Google to readed the premium anyway nice move so a lot of things going on out there the only people complaining are the ones who are fighting the tape the only people who are complaining are saying hey you know what we’re a little bit in debt out here this isn’t going to end well okay at some point it might not end well but at that point we’ll see where we are you know we’ll probably get some kind of bearish move in the overall indices that do not repair that do not rebuild and head lower in order to get to the 200 day in the S&P what do you have to do you got to break and stay below the 821 Day first right it’s a process to reduce risk it’s a process to change an active sequence doesn’t happen like that so not saying you got to be there till the end but you know don’t fight a move that’s been working out really well and it’s December 17 and typically you know strong stocks get stronger because nobody wants to take profits and weak stocks don’t have their January effect until they’re ready like some guys like Red Dog Blackberry what the hell are you doing there I’m like well um it was tight you know because I I’ve been in the business for a long time I do have some friends that are fundamentalists that I send my technical node and they’re like hey take a look at Blackberry people don’t understand what’s happening here it’s software for cars and they might catch up I looked at it technically I’m like ah this looks pretty good I’ll start buying it and that happened just like that it was a nice trade even Lucid you know looks pretty good to be honest I think that this could see close to $3 or so as rivan also is uh making a nice move from the lows he was he woke up nice little bull flag above the E day continuation so that’s how a new active sequence starts you could find a new active sequence even in broken names depending on the time of year here you could play leaders you could play things to play catchup or you could just do nothing and complain but not not here my dogs don’t complain Conrad who’s complaining anybody complaining nobody’s complaining let’s see um sa that’s been a sick trade like that just shows you how bad I am I was playing this thing here um I think at $6 this is and look at that move you want to talk about a stock that could tra that could change your year that could change a lot of things for you if you find it early and stick with it and this thing followed every rule in the book you know went up pulled back held the E day you could have bought a dip and played it through a level then it went up you could have board a dip and played it through a level and then you could have sold some strength board a dip in the day and play it through a level wow should you do anything here I wouldn’t you’re a little late but anyway that’s what you do guys keep keep moving forward keep finding the next setup try and stay with it with trade management and you could always eat right right dogs got to eat or drink its ice coffee and I haven’t even eaten yet in 36 hours so I fast every Monday I fasted all day yesterday had ice coffee and water I haven’t had anything yet today I’ll probably have something around one o’clock 36 hours right you know everyone if you if you eat too much you feel fully get tired and complacent sometimes you got to test yourself and do some things to make sure you’re in control of your your being anyway with that said good luck today it’s 6:52 I’m going to trade the morning go get my suit on got a car going to see is claiming then I’m going to come back trade the close and I’m going to be in CUO watching Chase on opening day what’s your day like figure it out figure out how to win the morning so you can win the day and I’ll help you do that coming up